Russia wants to station tactical nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus. What does that mean? And what does Kremlin chief Putin want to achieve with this?
In the face of growing tensions with the West, Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that tactical nuclear weapons will be stationed in neighboring Belarus. With this shift to the west, Russia wants to have nuclear weapons ready outside of its own territory for the first time since the 1990s. Belarus is Russia’s closest ally in its war against Ukraine, but has not sent any troops of its own into the fighting.
In contrast to strategic nuclear weapons, tactical nuclear weapons have a significantly lower explosive power. Warheads with a detonation force of 100 kilotons of TNT up to several megatons are considered strategic nuclear weapons. For comparison, the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima in 1945 had a yield of 15 kilotons. The explosive power of modern tactical nuclear weapons varies greatly and can even be well below that of the Hiroshima bomb. However, that does not make them any less dangerous – on the contrary.
Russia has nearly 2,000 tactical warheads
While strategic nuclear weapons are subject to the logic of mutual destruction and thus “only” serve to deter an opponent, the use of tactical nuclear weapons does not necessarily lead to an unlimited nuclear exchange of blows. Thus, among the military, tactical warheads are considered “operational” in a limited scenario.
Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, including in the tactical area. While the NATO armies have abolished their tactical stocks with a few exceptions, such as the B61 bombs stored at the Büchel air base, Russia has largely maintained its tactical arsenal to this day. US researchers from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists estimate that there are currently at least 1,912 tactical warheads in Russian arsenals, most of which are under the control of the Navy and Air Force.
Planes and rocket launchers for use
Russia has stationed ten aircraft in Belarus that are suitable for carrying such weapons, Putin said. A number of Iskander tactical cruise missiles capable of launching nuclear weapons have also been transferred to the neighboring country. The operating crews should be trained accordingly from April 3rd. Russia retains control of the warheads.
Medium-range bombers such as the Tupolev Tu-22M, the Sukhoi Su-24 or the MiG-31K are capable of firing nuclear-tipped cruise missiles from the air. The hypersonic missile called Kinshal, which Russia claims to have used several times in the war against Ukraine, also belongs to this category – albeit equipped with conventional explosives.
Iskander-M medium-range missile launchers can fire missiles with a range of 500 kilometers and cruise missiles with a range of 1,500 kilometers – both nuclear and conventional. Iskander-M are already stationed in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, from where they could also reach Berlin, Warsaw or Copenhagen.
Effect would be devastating despite less impact
Tactical nuclear weapons were developed during the Cold War to destroy troop concentrations, tank formations, command centers or underground bunkers. Even if their explosive power is lower than that of strategic nuclear weapons, their effects are still devastating. Even small warheads create mushroom clouds, nuclear fallout, and set everything in the area on fire.
“These weapons are not about military goals, it’s about demonstrating that you are prepared to use them and kill countless civilians in the process,” said disarmament expert Pavel Podvig last fall, referring to Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons.
Saber rattling or dangerous escalation?
Scientists mostly interpreted Putin’s announcement as saber-rattling. “This is part of Putin’s attempt to intimidate NATO,” said expert Hans Kristensen from the Federation of American Scientists, which specializes in armaments and security issues. Russia does not derive any military benefit from this step, as it already maintains a comprehensive nuclear weapons arsenal on its own territory.
After Putin’s announcement, the US Presidential Office said there was no reason to change US nuclear weapons policy, nor were there any signs that Russia was preparing to use a nuclear weapon. A senior government official said Russia and Belarus had been discussing such an agreement since last year.
The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), an alliance of non-governmental organizations, spoke of an extremely dangerous escalation. In connection with the war in Ukraine, the risk of a misjudgment is very high. There is a risk of catastrophic humanitarian consequences.
