What if the global temperature rises by 3 degrees? Shocking simulation results

Eight out of the 10 most affected areas are in Asia…If the temperature rises by 3 degrees, about 600 million people are at risk of flooding.

[아시아경제 윤슬기 기자] A study has found that major coastal cities around the world, such as Shanghai, China and Sydney, Australia, will be affected by flooding if the global temperature rises by 3 degrees Celsius.

According to CNN on the 12th, a non-profit climate change research organization, Climate Central, along with researchers from Princeton University in the United States and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, have been working in major cities around the world in the aftermath of sea level rise and flooding when the global temperature rises by 3 degrees. After simulating the impacts of the sea, it warns that “50 cities around the world must take measures to defend against unprecedented sea-level rise.”

Climate Central published simulation results assuming a 3 degree Celsius rise. According to the published data, it was found that Honolulu in the United States, Naples in Italy, Nice in France, Barcelona in Spain, and Havana in Cuba, Mumbai in India and Hanoi in Vietnam in Asia were affected by flooding.

The researchers said that if the temperature rise is assumed to be within 1.5 degrees, 510 million people and 800 million people at 3 degrees can be affected by flooding. In addition, the research team analyzed that the flood damage would be concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region.

In the South Korean metropolitan area, Gimpo Airport in Gangseo-gu, Seoul and parts of Bucheon in Incheon are likely to be submerged. Last year, Greenpeace announced the results of a ‘Great Flood Simulation on the Korean Peninsula’ that if sea level rise and flooding overlap, the lowlands of Busan, Jeonbuk, Chungnam, and Incheon could be submerged by 2030.

The current global temperature is already 1.2 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels. Scientists stress that this number must be kept below 1.5 degrees Celsius to prevent the worst damage from the climate crisis.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), even if we assume that global greenhouse gas emissions will decrease and achieve ‘net zero’ (carbon neutrality) by 2050, the temperature will rise by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, and emissions will continue after 2050. In the case of the case, it has been announced that it will rise to 3 degrees in the 2060s or 2070s.

Meanwhile, the research team said that although cities are more likely to reorganize their infrastructure due to the impact of natural disasters such as floods, low-income countries may lag behind as this is greatly affected by each country’s financial capacity.

“The choices we make today will shape our path,” said Benjamin Strauss, chief researcher at Climate Central, who participated in the study, calling for action on climate change.

Reporter Seulgi Yoon seul97@asiae.co.kr