What is a ‘Rolling Recession’?
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[인포스탁데일리=박상철 기자] Analysts say the US economy has entered a ‘rolling recession’. A rolling recession refers to a phenomenon where various sectors of the economy, such as housing, manufacturing, and corporate profits, experience recession one after the other, rather than the economy shrinking at the same time.
According to the Sector Employment Index released by the US Department of Labor on the 3rd, the number of employed workers increased by 517,000 in January. This is the biggest increase in six months and is well above the market expectation of 187,000.
The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% in January, the lowest in 54 years, beating 3.5% the previous month and market expectations of 3.6%.
The labor market participation rate rose from 62.3% to 62.4%. The hourly rate of increase was 33.03 dollars, up 0.3% from the previous month.
As a result, Goldman Sachs said on the 6th local time that the probability that the United States will enter a recession in the next 12 months is 25%, down from a previous estimate of 35%.
As the labor market continues to strengthen, the possibility of an economic recession diminishes.
Park Sang-hyun, a researcher at HI Investment & Securities, said, “Paradoxically, the rolling recession means that a severe economic recession may not occur due to a simultaneous decline in different parts of the economy, as in the past .” but at the moment, the possibility is underestimated.”
In particular, the strengthening of the economic momentum of the euro and China together with a strong jobs market in the United States reduces the risk of a recession in the United States.
Researcher Park said, “The change in the positive outlook on the US economic cycle is judged to have had a major impact first of all on the recovery of the euro and Chinese economic momentum.” The cycle also has a positive effect on the United States economic cycle.”
Reporter Park Sang-cheol 3fe94@infostock.co.kr
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