Interest is focused on the timing of interest rate hikes as the US Federal Reserve (Fed/Fed) announces the start of normalization of monetary policy at the regular meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in September.
Based on the results of the FOMC meeting, domestic securities companies predicted the first rate hike in the US after the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19) to be ‘second half of 2022’ or ‘first half of 2023’.
According to the financial investment industry on the 26th, out of 20 securities companies that reported the results of the FOMC meeting, 10 of them predicted the first rate hike to be in the second half of 2022.
Prospects for the timing were tight, with the other half, or 10, projected in the first half of 2023 or later.
10 companies, including Mirae Asset Securities, Shinhan Financial Investment, Hana Financial Investment, and Daishin Securities, expected to raise interest rates by the end of next year.
At the FOMC meeting, these brokerages cited an increase in the number of Fed members who predicted a rate hike next year as the main reason.
At the September FOMC meeting, the Fed’s rate hike dotplot was revised upwards from June.
The dot plot is an indicator of the future interest rate outlook of FOMC members. Nine out of 18 members predicted at least one rate hike next year.
This is an increase of two from the seven in June.
Min Ji-hee, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, said, “As Chairman Jerome Powell predicted, after the tapering (reduction of asset purchases) is over next year, the discussion about interest rate hike will be in earnest, and the Fed is expected to start raising interest rates once in the second half of next year. do,” he said.
In contrast, eight companies, including Samsung Securities, KB Securities, Meritz Securities, and Kiwoom Securities, predicted interest rate hikes in the first half of 2023, including the first quarter.
While these brokerages will likely taper by mid-next year, the forecast is that the Fed is not in a hurry to raise rates within 2022.
Even though the number of members who predicted an interest rate hike increased, the analysis also showed that support for a rate hike is still valid.
“Based on recent remarks, it is estimated that key Fed leaders, including Chairman Powell, are among those who support the rate freeze by the end of 2022,” said Huh Jin-wook, an analyst at Samsung Securities.
Korea Investment & Securities predicted the first hike in the second half of 2023, and NH Investment & Securities predicted that it would only increase in the first half of 2024.
Korea Investment & Securities and NH Investment & Securities heard that even during the global financial crisis, it took a year for interest rates to actually rise after the tapering ended, and that the tapering period could be longer.
The Fed raised interest rates in December 2015.
It has been a year since tapering ended due to the global financial crisis.
In Korea, while the Bank of Korea raised interest rates for the first time last month, 13 out of 20 securities companies predicted that there would be an additional increase in November.
[표] The timing of the first Fed rate hike by brokerage firm
┌────────┬────────────────────────────┐
│ Securities companies │ Raise period │
│ ├──────┬───────┬──────┬──────┤
│ │The second half of 22nd │ The first half of 23rd │The second half of 23rd │The first half of 24th │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ Mirae Asset │ ㅇ │ │ │ │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ NH Investment │ │ │ │ ㅇ │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ Korea Investment │ │ │ ㅇ │ │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ Samsung │ │ ㅇ │ │ │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ KB │ │ ㅇ │ │ │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ Shinhan Investment │ ㅇ │ │ │ │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ Meritz │ │ ㅇ │ │ │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ Hana Financial Investment │ ㅇ │ │ │ │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ Kiwoom │ │ ㅇ │ │ │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ instead of │ ㅇ │ │ │ │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ Yu hit │ ㅇ │ │ │ │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ Hanwha Investment │ │ ㅇ │ │ │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ Kyobo │ ㅇ │ │ │ │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ Shinyoung │ ㅇ │ │ │ │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ Hyundai │ ㅇ │ │ │ │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ IBK │ │ ㅇ │ │ │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ Eugene Investment │ │ ㅇ │ │ │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ DB Financial Investment │ │ ㅇ │ │ │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ SK │ ㅇ │ │ │ │
├────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤
│ KTB Investment │ ㅇ │ │ │ │
└────────┴──────┴───────┴──────┴──────┘
※ Each securities company
/yunhap news
