Where will Thai stocks go? After the Bank of Thailand aims to raise interest rates strongly, remove a weak baht

At the latest meeting (20-21 September), the Fed was also presentarouse interestAnother 0.75% for the 3rd time in a row, just as the market expected, leading tointerest ratemoved up to a level of 3.00-3.25%, the highest since birthsubprime crisis

But what surprised me this time was the forecast.policy interest rate (Dot Plot) as Fed officials raised their forecasts for interest rates at the end of 2022 to 4.4% and 4.6% at the end of 2023, from 3.4% and 3.8% at the end of 2023 in 2023.

Therefore, if it is seizedPlot Dot Numbers The latest of 4.4% means that there is a chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by another 0.75% for the fourth time at its next meeting on November 2 and another 0.50% at its last meeting of the year. which looks at the signal that has already come out interestIt will be this high for a while. Fed officials say there will be no rate cut until 2024.

while chairman of the th “Jerome Powell” Reiterating that the Fed needs to raise interest rates to controlinflation Although the increase in the interest rate will affect the economy andLabor market But it has to be done to bring inflation down to the 2% target.

The Fed’s latest round of interest rate hikes. the greater the differenceThai interest rateWith the United States further 2.25-2.50% and at the end of the year, the Fed interest rate follows the Plot Dot at 4.4%, while the other two meetings of the MPC. If the MPC raises interest rates by 0.25% each time, the interest rate at the end of 2022 will be 1.25% relative to the United States. Interest spread will widen to 3.15%, forcing the baht to weaken further.

So, there is a high probability that it will MPC A stronger drug is needed. With a rate increase of more than 0.25% in the last 2 meetings of the year to withdraw money and pull the baht back to the target range as the government wants to see 35 baht / dollar

Asia Plus Securities It is estimated that there is a chance at the MPC meeting next week (September 28), that the MPC will raise interest rates 0.25% above the expected level. If there is a rate increase, every 0.25% will put pressure on the target of the index. The SET Index fell by around 78 points, or from the year-end target index of 1730 points to 1,652 points.

Even the rising interest rate is a negative factor for the overall picture. SET index but on the contrary The increase in the interest rate is a positive factor for commercial banks. Even now, all banks try to hold interest as far as possible to help customers, but ifpolicy interestStill going up and up and getting stronger In the end, the bank wouldn’t hold back.

In addition, a factor was also supported by loans that continued to grow in line with more active economic activities, with Dao Securities stating that the August loan overview of the 8 banks studied by the research department was 11.1 trillion baht, adding Up to 0.4 % MoM in line with large and retail loan growth. Hire purchase and home loans

Although the overall loan in September continues to grow. because large loans are in an accelerating phase and generallyautomotive industrystarting to improve better As a result, the full year 2022 loan will grow 4% YoY while still putting pressure on the banking sector. “More than the market” chose KBANK, KTB as the best choices

As with Phillip Securities (Thailand) the weight of the investment in the banking group. “More than the market” despite measures to help customers affected byCovid-19 together with the economic condition that has not fully recovered, which could cause NPL The group increased in the third quarter of 2022, but the group reserve level remained high. This is likely to cause a reduction in provision for this year.

In addition, loan growth is still good. and has also benefited from rising interest rates supporting interest income to continue growing As a result, the profit is still outstanding. Choose SCB as the group’s top choice.


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