Why didn’t Ukraine join NATO earlier? 30 years in 5 minutes [뉴스 쉽게보기]

‘Easy News’, serialized by the Maeil Business Newspaper ‘dig’ team, aims for easy-to-read news. We will organize complex issues, solve difficult information, and deliver it easily.

The United States and major European countries are putting in place strong economic sanctions against Russia every day. But there is one thing I still haven’t done. That’s just sending troops. Although the number of civilian casualties is increasing, the position that military intervention is not considered remains unchanged.

On the surface, the US and European countries are saying ‘no cause’. Ukraine is not an ally and has no obligation to protect it. Ukraine has been pushing to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a military alliance with the West, but it has not been successful. NATO’s position is that it is burdensome for non-member countries to directly intervene in wars. So, why didn’t Ukraine join NATO earlier?

1990’s: Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons

In fact, Ukraine has been pushing for NATO accession since 30 years ago. Ukraine gained independence in 1991 after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. I felt threatened by Russia trying to take back Ukraine. However, NATO refused to join Ukraine at the time. It was a position to give up nuclear weapons first. Ukraine retains the nuclear weapons it had in its territory when the Soviet Union disintegrated. At that time, it had the third largest nuclear power in the world. The problem was that Ukraine didn’t have the economic and technological capability to maintain nuclear weapons. That’s why I chose to give up my nuclear weapons and ensure security.

According to the ‘Budapest Memorandum of Understanding’ signed in 1994, Ukraine was to give up its nuclear weapons, and the US, UK and Russia would instead provide economic support and security. However, unlike a formal treaty or agreement, a memorandum is not binding under international law. Ukraine may not be unaware of this fact, but it is seen as the best option.

2000’s: The time I went right before joining

In 2008, NATO accession was nearly achieved. At the time, the United States was trying to get Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO. Russia felt threatened. Twelve of the countries that became independent from the Soviet Union have already joined NATO, including Ukraine and Georgia, which border on each other. Eventually, Russia invaded Georgia four months after the promise to join NATO. Georgia surrendered in four days and Russia took 20% of Georgia’s territory. Even then, NATO only criticized and did not take any practical action. Since then, Ukraine’s accession to NATO has virtually ceased.

2010’s: The name I longed for again, NATO

▶Public opinion changed by the anger of citizens

At this time, there were quite a few people who opposed Ukraine’s accession to NATO. Ukraine has a strong pro-Russian tendency as more Russians live in the eastern region adjacent to Russia. Opinion polls also showed a predominantly opposition to NATO membership.

Even in the early 2010s, the Ukrainian government was made up of pro-Russian figures. Things changed drastically in 2013. Anti-government protests calling for a pro-European policy took place, and the then pro-Russian president severely suppressed the protests. More than 100 people were killed, and as public anger over the over-repression grew, a pro-Western government came to power in 2014.

▶Eyes were opened and the stolen land, a ‘memorandum’ that did not play a role

Remember the Budapest Memorandum of Understanding mentioned above? The usefulness of this memorandum has been controversial in the past. When a pro-Western regime emerged in 2014, Russia forcibly annexed Ukraine’s Crimea. It was in the name of protecting the Russians in the area. Based on the results of the referendum of the people of Crimea, Russia took over the area. At that time, Ukraine also sought help from the United States, but the United States did not take any military action. They only criticized Russia for violating the memorandum and did not intervene by force as it is now.

▶ The easily broken ‘peace agreement’

Of course, there was also a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. In eastern Ukraine there is a region adjacent to Russia called ‘Donbass’. It is a place where Russians lived in the past, and there are also many pro-Russian people. This group even waged an armed independence struggle against the Ukrainian government forces, claiming it wants independence from Ukraine. In 2014, the two countries signed the ‘Minsk Agreement’ for peace as the fighting caused greater damage. But it soon became infamous. In recent years, as the conflict between the two countries has intensified, Russian President Vladimir Putin even went so far as to say that the Minsk Agreement no longer exists.

2020~Present: The war that started without being able to join in the end

Until recently, Ukraine wanted to join NATO, but NATO has been lukewarm. He thought that it was better to maintain the status quo than to provoke Russia by prematurely joining Ukraine. In particular, it would have been burdensome for European countries, which depend on Russia for about 40% of their natural gas consumption, to take an active role.

Of course, besides Ukraine joining NATO, there are other reasons why major countries are unable to send troops. The whole world is shouting for peace, but domestic public opinion is against military intervention. In a recent poll in the US, only 26% said the US should play an important role in the Ukraine crisis. 52% said they should play a minor role, and 20% said they should not play any role. The situation is similar in major European countries.

It is also burdensome that President Joe Biden’s approval rating has plummeted due to the recent sharp rise in US inflation. His approval rating, which reached the 60% level at the beginning of his tenure, has dropped to the low 40% level. They worry that prices will rise as the war escalates.

Of course, it is true that war with Russia is burdensome. If the U.S. intervenes, it will soon be World War III. In particular, a war between the United States and Russia, the world’s second largest nuclear powers, could lead to ruin throughout the world.

The United States has also been involved in conflicts around the world and participated in wars. It wasn’t too expensive either. In particular, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan cost Americans thousands of casualties and astronomical costs. It can be seen that the United States, which has already been involved in the war several times, is determined not to make any further sacrifices.

War against Russian intentions

In the end, Russia went to war, but things don’t seem to be going the way Russia intended. There are even interpretations that Russia is embarrassed by the fierce Ukrainian resistance. An increasing number of countries are not sending troops, but are willing to provide war supplies.

In addition, with the Russian invasion as an opportunity, discussions about Ukraine joining the European Union (EU) are on the rise. The atmosphere in the EU, which was cautious because of relations with Russia, has changed. Of course, it will not be easy for Ukraine to join the EU right away. In order to start negotiating accession, the unanimous consent of the existing member states is required, and the process takes at least a year.

However, some see it as meaningful just that the EU has opened up the possibility of Ukraine’s accession. It could send a signal to Russia that Ukraine is important to Europe. Ukraine, which has been on a diplomatic tightrope for the safety of the country for many years, can overcome the great crisis of war and restore peace with its new allies?

[박재영 기자 / 임형준 기자]

[뉴스 쉽게보기]is a weekend serialization of ‘dig’, a new media team of Maeil Business News. By subscribing to the free newsletter created by Digg, you will receive emails every morning of other stories that are read quickly. Search ‘Maeil Economic Newsletter’ and meet Digg’s carefully written letters. You can also link to the subscription page by clicking the ‘Channel’ link on the two reporter pages below.

[ⓒ 매일경제 & mk.co.kr, 무단전재 및 재배포 금지]