Health expert “All viruses, try to be endemic… Corona is the same”
“More than half of humanity has Corona or gets a vaccine… The rules of the game change”
“How fast the endemic transition depends on the nature of the next mutation.”
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(San Francisco = Yonhap News) Correspondent Jeong Seong-ho = South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States, etc. show signs that the explosive spread of the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) caused by omicron mutation has stopped, and a pandemic (a global pandemic) is coming soon. The question arises as to whether it will end.
CNN reported on the 22nd (local time) that this frame has changed somewhat as the world feared the worst situation with the appearance of the omicron mutation at the end of November last year, but two months after that, the omicron became the dominant species in many countries. .
Some in the scientific community are cautiously optimistic that Omicron could be the final chapter of the pandemic.
As a large number of Omicron infections, which cause relatively little severity or death, emerge, a significant portion of mankind will become immune, and as a result, COVID-19 will be closer to the endemic phase, which resembles seasonal diseases such as colds and flu. it will be
An endemic is a condition in which a certain disease continues to exist, but does not cause large-scale infection like a pandemic, and does not disrupt the functioning of each function of society.
Professor David Heyman, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said: “My personal view is that COVID-19 is becoming endemic, just like other coronaviruses, and will remain endemic for the time being. It seems to be working,” he said.
Of course there are variables. As no one predicted the emergence of Omicron, the next mutation could pose a more serious threat to public health, delaying the end of the pandemic. Also, in many countries where vaccination rates are still low, the Omicron tsunami could leave hospitals unable to handle patients.
But for the first time since the onset of the coronavirus outbreak in 2020, infectious disease experts and political leaders are examining the possibility that it may be moving into an endemic state, CNN reported.
In this context, this broadcast diagnoses that the topic that the scientific community and the world will be pondering throughout this year will be when Corona 19 will enter an endemic state.
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Already, some European countries, such as Denmark, the UK, and Spain, are showing a movement that seems to change the premise of the national quarantine system to an endemic.
According to Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious diseases at the University of Edinburgh, COVID-19 does not disappear completely in our lifetime, but is similar to other diseases in which most people are infected once or several times while they are children and gradually build up immunity through accumulated infections. It was predicted that eventually it would arrive at the time of dissolution.
“Omicron is another single dose of the virus,” Woolhouse said.
It is at this point that the characteristics of omicrons, which are mild in severity, become important. It provides an additional layer of immunity without the risk of hospitalization and death at the same level that previous mutations did.
Compared to delta in a Scottish study, the risk of hospitalization with omicrons was reduced by two-thirds and in a South African study by 80%.
“More than half the world is now exposed to the novel coronavirus or vaccine,” said Professor Woolhouse. “From a virus perspective, the rules of the game have changed.”
Past history also supports this view. Applying previous pandemic scenarios to the current situation is not exactly scientific, but historically, viruses evolve toward less severe severity and eventually become part of the cold or flu group.
“There are four other coronaviruses that have already turned into an endemic,” Heyman said.
For example, the ‘Spanish Flu’ outbreak in 1918 caused mankind to have a very terrible ‘H1N1 Flu Virus’, and it is said that this virus is prevalent almost every year.
According to CNN, experts generally agree that Omicron has accelerated the entry into the endemic stage of Corona 19, and the condition to keep in mind is what the next mutation will be that will determine how quickly it will get there.
Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), attended the World Economic Forum’s ‘Davos Agenda’ held by videoconference on the 17th and said, “That’s (omicron mutation) vaccination using a live virus that everyone wants. Whether this will be the case is still an unanswered question, because there is too much variability in relation to the new mutations that will emerge.”
Professor Woolhouse said there are many positive signs, but that doesn’t mean that new mutations won’t make things worse.
“The next mutation has to outperform Omicron. For that to happen, its key ability is to evade innate immunity and vaccine-induced immunity,” he said. “What we don’t know in advance is how bad it will be.” .
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