Winter property market | Hong Kong has added P after 4 years, and the burden of housing supply has become heavier? The 6 million floor will pay an additional 371 yuan per month

Winter property market | Hong Kong has added P after 4 years, and the burden of housing supply has become heavier? The 6 million floor will pay an additional 371 yuan per month

Last night the Fed raised interest rates again by 0.75%, bringing the rate to 3%. Several banks in Hong Kong announced today that they have raised their prime rate (P) by 0.125% after a long period. The details are as follows:

bank

original interest rate

latest rate

HSBC (0005)

5 centimeters

5.125cm

Hang Seng (0011)

5 centimeters

5.125cm

Standard Chartered (2888)

5.25cm

5.375cm

BOCHK (2388)

5 centimeters

5.125cm

Zhuang Jinhui, CEO of Star Valley Mortgage Referral, said the increase in P this time was slightly smaller than expected, and he believed it was just “testing the temperature of the water”. He pointed out that the bank’s cost of capital is linked to the one month interbank offered rate (HIBOR), which has now risen to 2.6% However, the actual mortgage interest rate is generally only 2.75% to reduce the pressure on the mortgage. spreads. In addition, the United States predicts that interest rates will continue to rise in the future, and the pressure on banks’ capital costs will continue to increase in the future, so I think that P has the opportunity to increase more than once .

The monthly increase in housing supply is 371 yuan

If the bank were to add P after almost 4 years, will it increase the burden on Hong Kong people? Assuming the price of the property600million, contract9A mortgage (ie a loan540million), with30The annual term of the mortgage is calculated, and the monthly payment (including the mortgage premium) is approx.22,774Yuan, compared to the previous rate before the rate increasePaccording to2.5a centimeter22,403dollars, an increase of approx.371yuan or1.7% (see table below).

If Hong Kong raises interest rates in the future0. 125centimeters, whenPaccording tois further increased to2.75%, then the monthly payment (including the mortgage premium) will rise to approx.23,147Yuan, compared to the original (2.5cm) increased approx.744yuan or3.3%.

property price

$6 million

Mortgage amount

$5.4 million

monthly contribution

P was originally 2.5%

$22,403

After raising the interest rate by 0.125%, P was raised to 2.625%,

than before

$22,774

+$371

If the interest rate increases by 0.125% in the future, the rate P will rise to 2.75%,

than before

$23,147

+$744

*The monthly payment above is calculated based on the mortgage insurance application of 90%, including the mortgage premium, and is calculated based on the mortgage term of 30 years.

It is more beneficial to choose P in the future

Zhuang Jinhui continued to point out that although the increase this time is not large, HIBOR has continued to rise from 0.15% at the beginning of the year to 2.6% today, and the H mortgage rate also reaches the cap rate at the end the month of July. It is believed that existing mortgage borrowers have already felt the burden of housing supply rising. Calculated with a repayment period of 30 years, from the actual interest rate of 1.45% at the beginning of the year to today’s increase in P, the monthly payment has increased by about HK$589 per 1 million; taking the loan amount of 5 million as an example, the monthly payment has increased by about HK$2,946 .

In addition, Zhuang Jinhui said that even after raising the prime interest rate, the real interest rate P according to the plan launched by major banks is still lower than the capped interest rate H according to the plan, and it will still be in the interest rate hike cycle in the next two years Very Small, so it is more advantageous to choose a P press than an H press.

CCL fell for 9 consecutive weeks, hitting a new low in more than 3 years

Published last FridayCCL Central Plains City Leading Index reported 171.27 points, down 5.4% for 9 consecutive weeks, and down 0.33% weekly, reaching a new low since February 2019. Zhuang Jinhui said that Hong Kong has entered’ r the interest rate hike cycle is official, the future interest rate trend is uncertain, and the actual market entry rate is significantly lower than in the past.

Property prices may fall to2017end of year level

Bu Shaoming, CEO of Midland Realty’s Residential Division (Hong Kong and Macau), said that under the twin pressures of interest rate hikes and the epidemic, it is expected that Hong Kong property prices could fall to2017The level at the end of the year will depend on customs clearance and epidemic prevention measures and whether the “Policy Direction” has stimulated the economy further or “less spicy” measures. As the interest rate increase is expected, and Hong Kong’s economic outlook is still uncertain, property prices for the whole year will be maintained for now.8%Prediction.

Bu Shaoming emphasized,Interest rate movements are just one factor that affects the property market.causeIn general, the market is psychologically prepared for interest rate rises.In addition, property owners have passed the stress test before entering the market. Unless the pace of interest rate rises in Hong Kong is rapid and the rate of increase is rapid, the real impact on property supply will be limited .

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