[World Now] How will the war in Ukraine end? What are the 5 predictable scenarios?

Now, two months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is difficult to predict when and how this war will end.

Although there are reports of progress being made in the peace negotiations between the two sides, it is difficult for anyone to predict the outcome of the negotiations.

In the midst of this, Foreign Policy, a media specialized in US diplomacy, said on the 30th that the war had already faced several unexpected phases and the future direction was also completely unpredictable. We presented 5 scenarios for the hyangbae of

It predicts that one or two or more of the five scenarios are likely to develop or end in a combined path.

What are the 5 scenarios?

[1. 유혈 교착상태 지속]

The Russian army has sent nearly 200,000 troops to Ukraine, but has been hampered by fierce resistance from Ukraine and its own inefficiency.

NATO officials estimate that more than 40,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, injured or taken prisoner so far.

The Ukrainian government claims to have killed seven Russian generals.

The Russian attack on Kiiu has been stagnant for weeks, and it is known that the Ukrainian counterattack in the southern coastal city of Kherson, the only major city occupied, has also lost control of parts of the city.

The Ukrainian military said on the 24th that it had destroyed a Russian amphibious assault ship and two other ships in the port city of Vernyevsk.

This is likely to further incapacitate the poor Russian supply lines.

Experts say Russia is discussing resuming supplies and increasing its troops, but the most likely scenario is that both sides continue to fight attrition and stalemate at the front continues.

“Considering Russia’s poor performance and Ukraine’s high morale and Western weapons, neither side will be able to achieve much in the deadlock,” said former US Navy Admiral James Stabridis, who served as commander of US and NATO forces in Europe. “Russia will eventually go back to Donbass and claim that was their goal.”

William Taylor, a researcher at the American Peace Institute, who served as the US ambassador to Ukraine, said: .

[2. 우크라이나 분할]

Sergei Rudskoy, 1st Deputy Chief of Staff of the General Staff of the Russian Army, said on the 25th, “Most of our ‘Phase 1 operation’ has been implemented.

It appears to have signaled a change in operations to focus more on eastern Ukraine, where the Russian military has established a solid base.

A senior U.S. Pentagon official, who requested anonymity, confirmed on the same day that “Russia is prioritizing eastern Ukraine.”

In response, Kirillo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Agency, warned on the 27th that “Russia is trying to divide Ukraine into occupied and non-occupied territories to create a divided state like South Korea and North Korea.”

European officials, who requested anonymity, fear that if the Russian military seizes the southeastern city of Mariupol and then connects with Russian troops advancing south from Kharkiv based there, fighting Ukrainian forces in the eastern Ukrainian OPZ could be isolated. I did.

“If Russian forces succeed in encircling Ukrainian forces in the east,” said Michael Koffman, a Russian military expert at think tank CNA.

Experts estimate that about 40% of Ukrainian forces are currently deployed in the eastern region.

They expect Russia to create such a situation and demand greater autonomy over the Donbas region, and that Putin will use their protection to justify war.

However, other experts predicted that Ukraine’s resistance would escalate, saying it is unlikely that Ukraine will agree to a peace treaty that would yield some of its territory to Russia.

Former U.S. Navy Admiral James Stavrydis said, “The partition of Ukraine is a result that everyone hates because Putin has failed to occupy the whole of Ukraine, from Ukraine’s point of view he will lose part of his territory, and from the West, sanctions on Russia must be lifted.” .

“But that’s diplomacy,” he said. “It’s very difficult to achieve a perfect victory over a nuclear-armed state.”

[3. 우크라이나의 결정적 승리]

Western defense and security experts say that the Russian military lost power by exposing weak tactics and loopholes in supply, equipment, and logistics for a month. There is.

But this does not mean an all-out victory for Ukraine.

Although the Ukrainian army is fighting impressively with strong determination and excellent tactics, it is still far behind the Russian army in terms of force and firepower, and the Russian government shows no sign of backing down.

“You can see that they[Russian forces]are stagnant and not going any further, but it won’t be a military defeat,” said Samuel Charab, a Russian security expert at the Rand Institute of America.

However, not all experts are pessimistic about the prospects for victory in Ukraine.

“It is too early to say, but a victory for Ukraine cannot be ruled out,” said William Taylor, a USIP researcher.

[4. 평화 협정으로 종전]

As the possibility of an all-out military victory on both sides decreases, there is also a forecast that the end of the war in the form of a peace agreement is highly functional.

Samuel Charab, a researcher at the Rand Institute, said, “As a solution through negotiation, this is the most likely.” “The problem will be timing and conditions.”

The two sides are continuing negotiations, but expectations are not very high.

Russia is demanding a declaration of neutrality and demilitarization of Ukraine, acceptance of the Russian annexation of Crimea, and recognition of the independence of the Donbass region.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video message on the 27th that he was willing to discuss the neutralization of Ukraine in exchange for his unwavering commitment to security and respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Jim Townsend, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe and NATO, said: “The battlefield situation is likely to become a pace-setting event. You have to be exhausted enough to get started.”

As the war’s impact on the global economy is growing due to soaring oil prices, it is also expected that European countries will increase pressure on the Zelensky government to seek a peace agreement in the future.

[5. ‘블랙 스완’‥예상치 못한 사건 발생]

Some experts point out that a completely unexpected event, the so-called ‘black swan event’, may lead to a situation in which the course of the war will change significantly.

A black swan is an event that is very difficult to predict, but once it occurs, it has a very large impact on future outcomes.

Foreign policy cited events such as the use of chemical and nuclear weapons, and regime change in Russia.

It is still unclear what President Putin thinks about the war in Ukraine.

Because of this, experts say it’s hard to predict how far Russia will drag on this war.

Tatiana Stanovaya, a researcher at the Carnegie Center in Moscow, said, “There is no precedent for Putin to step back because he was cornered.”

US President Joe Biden said on the 23rd that there was a “real threat” that Russia could use chemical weapons in Ukraine.

New U.S. military aid to Ukraine also includes defenses against chemical weapons attacks.

Former Admiral James Fogo, who served as the commander of the US Navy’s 6th Fleet, said, “If Russia is in a desperate situation, there is a possibility that Russia will use chemical weapons foolishly.

Some experts fear that the use of chemical weapons by Russia will change the course of the war and make the humanitarian disaster worse.

Another possibility that the US and Europe are concerned about is Russia’s use of tactical nuclear weapons.

Experts warn that this scenario is still unlikely, but Western defense authorities must plan for every possibility.

If any form of nuclear weapons is used, it is expected that the course of the war will change significantly and the West’s response will change significantly, including the possibility of NATO forces participating in the war.

The possibility of President Putin’s ouster from power as a shocking event that will greatly change the course of the war is being talked about, but at this stage the possibility seems to be small.

After the invasion of Ukraine, anti-war protests were strongly suppressed in the early stages and the opposition was thoroughly suppressed, so the possibility of a regime change by a popular uprising does not appear to be large.

“I don’t think anyone around Putin will be against him,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a researcher at the Carnegie Center in Moscow.