“Prakit Siriwatanaket” analyzes Thai stocks at the beginning of next year. of economic recovery – Clarity on the election but it will be sluggish in the second half of the year US-Europe stocks reversed
On November 22, 2022, Mr. Prakit Siriwatanaket, Managing Director of Merchant Partners Asset Management Co, Ltd gave an interview on the program “Khon Kap Khao” broadcast on satellite TV station “News One” on the topic “Global stocks and Thai stocks 2023, a recession awaits?
by Mr. Prakit said during a period which is the stock market at the end of the year Thailand and the world should be worse. First, the US stock market. Done with inflation and interest. This means that inflation has already reached its maximum level. And it’s about to go on and on and on, like for interest rates, the direction of interest rates is increasing, when you can guess how much it’s going to go, it shouldn’t be more than 5.25, will you reduce interest rates? Because the peak in interest rates that have been rising this year should be over too.
Disadvantages when inflation and interest rates are at their peak What will follow is a recession. When inflation rises, it raises fear. Higher product prices will reduce purchasing power in a period of 1-2 years. When people get used to expensive products Meaning: To dare to come back to spend
as well as high interest Less borrowing for investment The economy will be sluggish. The US-Europe stock market will start to react from now on. And it will go down until the first quarter of next year, while Thai stocks enter a sluggish state as well, November – December Foreign investors like to sell. and take the money home Because it will be before the Christmas holidays. and clear things out together with the present It was also favorable for him to speed up the process of clearing things. Thai stocks recovered and gained several percent. A profit from the sale of shares will also occur. The baht appreciated diving. Lots of cash profit It’s an opportunity that makes it sell. Thai stocks also go into a state of investment money began to disappear.
Mr Prakit said it was an opportunity for the domestic economy to recover. travel very well Other signs of economic numbers are improving. Importantly, we will see the clarity of General Prayut If it is clear in which party you are going to be There will be promotion to that party. This means that the chance of an early dissolution of parliament is less likely. because there must be time to campaign first which is good news because at the end of this month the Constitutional Court will have a decision to Act on political parties At the end of next month, there should be an appointment to listen to the diagnosis. Election Act.
If the end of next month does not contradict the two constitutions Then the children’s law related to the election was graciously ordered in February, after that the parliament was dissolved, nobody said anything. Because the elections that will be held in the next 45-60 days must be elected under the rules of 2 votes and using the formula to divide the percent. Under this rule, there can be a party that wins quite an overwhelming majority. stabilization The stock market will respond favorably. This would not have happened if Parliament had been dissolved before the law was passed.
Early next year, both for elections Including the full recovery of the economy Also China is relaxing the lockdown. Should be perfect in the second quarter. In that Thailand will benefit fully, although US and European stocks are down, but Thailand will gradually climb.
But problems will occur in the second half of the year. Because after America encountered a recession Interest rates may begin to fall. In contrast to Thailand, which cannot be reduced because inflation is still high. Thailand may be behind with interest rate cuts next year.
Together with the risk that populist policies will happen, different parties talked to each other before No matter how damaged the country is, I don’t care. creating concerns about financial discipline and long-term economy After the election, Thai stocks will be taken very high. It is the opposite for America and Europe. which began to be cast for half a year It will begin to flow in the second half of the year. Summary of Thai stocks in the 1st and 2nd quarter will be good, but the second half is not good, but America and Europe will start to improve.
