Writer Akunin Outlines Four Scenarios After the Fall of Putin’s Empire

Boris Akunin, the exiled Russian writer and prominent critic of the Kremlin, has outlined four potential trajectories for Russia following the eventual collapse of Vladimir Putin’s administration, warning that the nation faces a high risk of either internal chaos or becoming a geopolitical satellite of China.

In an analysis published by the Slovak news outlet Denník N, Akunin argued that the current Russian state is fundamentally unstable and “hollow,” suggesting that the perceived stability of the regime is an illusion that will shatter once the central authority of the current leadership is removed.

Akunin’s thesis centers on the idea that the Russian “empire” has been built on a fragile foundation of fear and personal loyalty rather than sustainable institutions. He posits that the transition away from the current system will likely be traumatic, regardless of the specific outcome.

The Risk of Chinese Subordination

One of the primary scenarios Akunin identified is the transformation of Russia into a satellite state of China. He suggests that as Russia continues to isolate itself from Western markets and diplomatic circles, it is becoming increasingly dependent on Beijing for economic survival and political legitimacy.

In this scenario, Akunin warns that Russia could effectively become a resource colony. The relationship would be characterized by an extreme asymmetry where Russia provides raw materials, energy and minerals in exchange for Chinese technology, infrastructure, and financial support. This subordination would extend beyond economics, with Beijing exerting significant influence over Russia’s internal political decisions and foreign policy.

The writer noted that this path is increasingly likely given the current trajectory of the “pivot to the East,” which he views not as a partnership of equals, but as a predatory arrangement that benefits China’s long-term strategic goals at the expense of Russian sovereignty.

Internal Collapse and Violent Revolution

A second possibility is a sudden and violent internal collapse. Akunin describes the potential for a “bloody” revolution triggered by a rapid loss of control at the center. This could occur if the military or security apparatus ceases to support the regime, or if social unrest reaches a breaking point due to economic hardship and the costs of ongoing conflict.

Akunin cautioned that such a revolution would not automatically lead to a democratic outcome. He warned that a violent power vacuum often leads to the rise of another authoritarian figure or a military junta, as the population and the remnants of the state seek order over liberty.

The danger in this scenario is the potential for widespread civil strife, as different factions within the security services and the political elite compete for control of the state’s remaining assets and authority.

Fragmentation of the Russian Federation

The third scenario involves the disintegration of the Russian Federation into several smaller, autonomous entities. Akunin suggests that the “center” in Moscow maintains control through a combination of subsidies and coercion; if the center can no longer provide the former or enforce the latter, regional leaders may seek independence.

This process of “Balkanization” could see ethnic republics and wealthy resource-rich regions break away to form their own states or align themselves with neighboring countries. Akunin argues that the multi-ethnic composition of Russia makes it particularly susceptible to this kind of fragmentation once the overarching imperial ideology collapses.

Such a breakup would likely be accompanied by territorial disputes and localized conflicts, further complicating any efforts to establish a stable political order in the region.

The Path to Democratic Transition

The fourth and most optimistic scenario is a transition toward a democratic state. However, Akunin noted that this is the most difficult path to achieve because the current regime has systematically dismantled all independent political institutions and suppressed the democratic opposition.

For a democratic transition to succeed, Akunin believes Russia would need a new social contract and a leadership capable of navigating the transition without triggering a civil war or falling into the hands of another autocrat. He emphasized that this would require not only the removal of the current leadership but a fundamental restructuring of the relationship between the state and its citizens.

Boris Akunin, born Grigory Chkhartishvili, has lived in exile since 2018 after being labeled a “foreign agent” by Russian authorities. He continues to write and comment on Russian politics from abroad, arguing that the current conflict in Ukraine serves as the primary catalyst that will eventually accelerate one of these four scenarios.