Xi’s successor is likely to rise from the ‘luckiest generation’ – Bloomberg

China opens next monthAt the Communist Party Congress, it is likely that attention will be focused on the leadership, but the promotion of groups that have not received much attention so far is also certain. And it is likely from this group that an eventual successor to President Xi Jinping will emerge.

The group refers to Communist Party cadres born in the 1970s. Even during Mao Zedong’s era, which plunged education and the economy into chaos, he did not experience the job shortages and housing crises that today’s generation of college graduates face.called the “luckiest generation”.

This generation went to college during China’s period of extraordinary economic growth and has been active as executives in industries ranging from finance to commodities. This generation also enjoyed the freedom of the Internet and integration with the world economy that the Xi administration halted.

More than 100 people born in the 1970s have already held executive positions in local governments and ministries. The party congress will bring the group closer to the center of power, making up about 10% of the party’s roughly 370-person Central Committee, said Chen Li of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, said the a director. However, he said most of them would be candidates for other positions on the Central Committee.

The ‘Lucky Generation’ by the Numbers
  • 108 people are appointed to the “top 2” level of local governments and ministries
  • The median age is 51 years
  • 90% Han Chinese
  • 34% majored in engineering at college
  • At least 23 have been educated abroad
  • The Party’s Central Committee has two members, both candidates

Source: Brookings Institution

If Xi keeps age limits on everyone except himself, as is widely expected, those born in the 60s will retire in the next decade and those born in the 70s will join the Central Politburo of the powerful party when the road is opened. Mr Xi will turn 79 when the party congress in 2032. At the end of his term, he will be older than any previous party general secretary.

Those born in the 1970s are “a very important generation,” says Victor Shih, an associate professor at the University of California, San Diego. “The mindset of this generation can be considered a bit more open to the world than other generations,” said Liu, an associate professor who studies China’s political elite.

Here are five people to watch out for in this generation.

Zhuge Yujie (51)

Zhuge was appointed deputy secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee in March. As deputy secretary of the provincial party committeeThe city’s youngest party leader is Li Qiang, who is known as a long-time aide to Mr Xi. Party cadres in the city are traditionally often promoted to key positions in the party’s central government. Mr Zhuge, like many others born in the 1970s, worked for a state-owned company before entering politics.

Liu Hong Jian (49)

In 2021, Liu became the head of the Yunnan Provincial Political and Legal Commission, making him the youngest member of the Party Standing Committee at the provincial level. Before that, he worked in Fujian for about 20 years, overlapping with Mr Xi’s career in the province between 1985 and 2002. A number of people with links to Mr Xi in rural areas have been promoted to the highest ranks of the Central Committee the party.

Liu Qiang (51)

Liu Qiang is

Photographer: Visual China Group/Getty Images

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