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“The Taliban will take over at the end of the year”… False U.S. intelligence


Ahead of the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in September, it turned out that not a single prediction of the US intelligence authorities was correct.

You overestimated the capabilities of the Afghan army without any specific reason.

This is Correspondent Lee Kyung-hee in Washington DC.


It has been confirmed in documents that US intelligence agencies have completely failed to gather information and predict the situation ahead of the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan.

The Wall Street Journal reported that this was found as a result of analyzing 20 reports produced by four intelligence agencies, including the US Central Intelligence Agency and the CIA.

The Defense Intelligence Agency has been found to overestimate the capabilities of the Afghan government and underestimate the capabilities of the Taliban.

A report published in June predicted that the Taliban would use a strategy to isolate Kabul for the next year.

Both reports are completely wrong.

A senior official in the Joe Biden administration pointed out that “The Defense Intelligence Agency has baseless faith in the capabilities of the Afghan army trained by the US military.”

The CIA had analyzed that the Afghan government would fall to the Taliban if the U.S. forces withdrew, but it did not foresee a sudden downfall.

In addition to a situation in which the Afghan government exerts control like a fortress in some areas, including Kabul, or the Afghan government and the Taliban divide and rule Afghanistan, there is also a scenario in which the Afghan government completely gives power to the Taliban, but that time will be at the end of this year. I looked forward.

In the end, the absurd predictions of intelligence agencies were the cause of the confusion and policy failure that occurred during the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

“The largest air evacuation in history, tactically and operationally successful, evacuating 124,000 people, but the war was a strategic failure.”

Because of this, the Biden administration’s approval ratings began to decline, recording its lowest since taking office, despite a high public opinion in favor of withdrawing the military.

It is reported that the current Joe Biden administration as well as the federal parliament are reviewing whether there were any problems with the work of intelligence agencies related to the situation in Afghanistan at the time.

This is Yonhap News TV, Lee Kyung-hee from Washington.

Yonhap News TV Article Inquiries and Reports: KakaoTalk/Line jebo23


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