Democratic Party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung and People’s Power presidential candidate Yoon Seok-yeol are in a close battle with a difference of 1 percentage point, which is within the margin of error. The party approval ratings of the Democratic Party and the People’s Power were tied. Following the recruitment of Kim Jong-in, former chairman of the emergency response committee, the conflict between candidate Yoon Seok-yeol and CEO Lee Jun-seok appears to have been reflected in the situation of the people’s power.
These are the results of the National Indicators Survey (NBS) of Embrain Public, CaseStat Research, Korea Research, and Korea Research released on the morning of the 2nd. From November 29 to December 1, four polling agencies conducted a survey targeting 1,015 men and women over the age of 18 (response rate 29.0%) nationwide.
When asked about their intentions to vote during a virtual match in a four-way match, including Democratic Party Lee Jae-myung, People’s Power Yoon Seok-yeol, Justice Party Shim Sang-jeong, and People’s Party Candidate Cheol-soo Ahn, the results showed that in the order of voting, Seok-Yeol Yoon (34%) – Jae-Myung Lee 33% – Cheol-Soo Ahn (5%) – Sang-Jung Shim 4%. 1% of the respondents who chose other people, and 23% of the floating class who chose no or don’t know/non-response (sampling error ±3.1%p at 95% confidence level).
Yoon Seok-yeol’s approval rating fell in the active voting class… The result of the election was overturned
Compared with the results of the NBS survey a week ago, the gap between the two candidates, Seok-Yeol Yoon and Jae-Myeong Lee, narrowed from 3%p to 1%p. This is the result of Candidate Yoon falling 1%p from the previous week and Candidate Lee rising 1%p from the previous week. The gap among the active voters (n=783) was also narrowed. In this survey, 38% of the active voters voted for Yoon and 37% for Lee. 1%p difference. In the Jeonju survey, 40% of the active voters voted for Yoon and 37% for Lee. This means that there has been a departure from the active voters who had chosen Yoon.
The results of asking about the prospects for the election regardless of whether or not they supported it were reversed. The results of last week’s election prediction survey were 40% Yoon Seok-yeol – 38% Lee Jae-myung. However, the results of this survey were 37% Lee Jae-myung, 36% Yoon Seok-yeol, and 1% Shim Sang-jeong. 25% of the respondents who reserved their attitude as no or don’t know/non-response. Candidate Lee fell 1%p from the previous week and Candidate Yoon fell 4%p from the previous week.
There was also a change in the results of the survey on favorability of two candidates, Jae-myung Lee and Seok-yeol Yoon, who were surveyed at monthly intervals. In this survey, the favorable sensitivity of candidate Lee was 38% (58% unfavorable), and the favorable sensitivity of candidate Yoon was 39% (57% unfavorable). Compared with the results of the survey in the first week of November, the likeability for Lee increased by 1%p and the unfavorable sensitivity decreased by 2%p. Favorability of candidate Yoon decreased by 2 percentage points, while unfavorability increased by 1 percentage point.
By age, Candidate Yoon took the lead in those in their 60s (Lee Jae-myung 29% – Yoon Seok-yeol 49%) and those over 70 years old (30% – 49%). Even in their 20s (19% – 27%), it was slightly dominant. This candidate was ahead of those in their 40s (47% – 21%) and 50s (41% – 36%). The gap in the 30s (29% – 24%) was within the margin of error.
By ideological orientation, the conservatives (Lee 15% – Yoon 57%) and the progressives (62% – 10%) all leaned to one side. In the middle class, Candidate Yoon received 33% and Candidate Lee 26%. This is the opposite result compared to the previous survey. In the shaman class without a party to support, both candidates Lee Jae-myung (17%) and Yoon Seok-yeol (15%) were on the equal side.
Democrats and People’s Power support a tie at 32%
The results of the party’s approval rating were 32% for the Democratic Party and People’s Power, 4% for the Justice Party, and 3% for the People’s Party. 26% of the respondents chose no or don’t know/no answer.
The Democratic Party’s approval rating did not change from the previous week, but the People’s Power support fell 3 percentage points from the previous week. The popularity of the People’s Power has been on a downward trend since it peaked at 29% in the NBS survey in the second week of November. On the other hand, the Democratic Party’s approval rating has risen since reaching the lowest level of 27% in the NBS survey in the first week of November, maintaining the low 30% level.
Meanwhile, this survey was conducted as a telephone interview survey using a mobile phone virtual number (100%) provided by three domestic telecommunication companies. For more information, refer to the website of the National Indicators Survey and the website of the Central Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee.
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