Airports Council International (ACI) Europe has warned the European Commission that the European Union could face a systemic shortage of aviation kerosene within three weeks if passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in a stable and significant manner.
The warning, issued in a letter to the EU’s energy and transport commissioners on April 10, 2026, suggests that jet fuel supplies may become so acute that flight cancellations across Europe will become inevitable. This development threatens to disrupt travel plans for millions of passengers as the industry enters the summer holiday season.
Impact of Middle East Conflict on Fuel Supplies
The potential fuel crunch is a direct result of the ongoing conflict involving Iran. Oil prices have soared since the beginning of March 2026 after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for exports from the Gulf, as a retaliatory measure.
This closure follows US-Israel attacks on Iran that took place at the end of February 2026. Since those attacks, jet fuel prices have risen sharply.
The market volatility is reflected in Brent crude oil prices. Before the war, oil traded at approximately $72 a barrel. By Friday, April 10, 2026, prices remained at about $96 a barrel.
Aviation Industry Risks and Market Volatility
The aviation sector is particularly vulnerable to these supply chain disruptions. ACI Europe indicated that without the resumption of supplies from the Middle East, the EU is only three weeks away from experiencing widespread shortages.
ACI Europe letter to the European Commission
If the passage through the strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU
The potential for rolling flight and holiday cancellations is increasing if the war between the US, Israel and Iran continues. Airlines are already weighing the possibility of cancellations as they monitor the availability of fuel.
Current Diplomatic Status
There have been recent attempts to stabilize the region. Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire during the week of April 6, 2026. However, market confidence remains low, as evidenced by the sustained high price of Brent crude oil.
The stability of the aviation industry in the UK and EU now depends on whether this ceasefire holds and whether oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz can be restored before the three-week window expires.