S&P Global affirmed the United Kingdom’s ‘AA/A-1+’ credit ratings with a stable outlook on April 10, 2026.
The agency indicated that a ratings upgrade is possible if the United Kingdom improves its fiscal performance. S&P Global stated that such an upgrade would depend on placing government debt to GDP on a predictable downward path.
Moody’s Rating Affirmation and Fiscal Outlook
On April 10, 2026, Moody’s also affirmed the credit rating of the United Kingdom at Aa3
with a stable outlook. The agency cited several significant strengths supporting this rating, including the country’s strong institutional framework and a diversified, wealthy economy.
Moody’s noted that the government’s commitment to stabilize the public debt ratio and reduce the large budget deficit supports the current rating. The agency’s assessment incorporates expectations that the upcoming budget, scheduled for November 26, 2026, will include fiscal measures consistent with government-defined fiscal rules to keep the cost of debt moderate.
Despite the affirmation, Moody’s expects only a gradual reduction
in the deficit and moderate economic growth
moving forward. These projections suggest a continued increase in general government debt. Moody’s forecasts debt will rise from approximately 103% of GDP in 2025 to just below 107% by the end of the decade.
The stable outlook assigned by Moody’s reflects balanced risks to the fiscal and economic outlook. The agency identified specific areas where stronger economic outcomes could be achieved, including increased public investment and reforms to the permitting and land use system.
According to Moody’s, the current land use and permitting system restricts housebuilding and serves as an impediment to both stronger productivity growth and labour mobility. Reforms in these areas could result in positive consequences for debt and fiscal prospects.
Fitch Ratings and Governance Indicators
Fitch Ratings affirmed the United Kingdom’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LTFC) Issuer Default rating at ‘AA-‘ with a stable outlook on February 20, 2026.
Fitch highlighted the impact of the United Kingdom’s governance on its credit profile, noting that the country maintains a percentile rank above 50 for the respective governance indicator. The agency assigned an ESG Relevance Score of ‘4+’ for Creditor Rights, as the willingness to service and repay debt is a primary rating driver for the sovereign.
Comparative Debt Projections
Fiscal projections for the United Kingdom vary between different monitoring bodies. In an Economic and Fiscal Outlook report published on November 26, 2025, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast that public sector net debt (PSND) would rise from 95.0 per cent of GDP in 2025 to a peak of 97.0 per cent of GDP in 2028-29.
This OBR projection differs from the higher trajectory estimated by Moody’s, which anticipates debt reaching just below 107% of GDP by the end of the decade. Both agencies, however, align on the necessity of fiscal discipline to maintain stable credit ratings.