Coface 2026 Country & Sector Risk Guide: Global Insights
- The global economy finds itself at a critical juncture, navigating a complex landscape of trade tensions, geopolitical fragmentation, and rising corporate defaults.
- The 2026 edition of the Coface Guide offers an in-depth analysis of over 160 countries and 13 major sectors, leveraging the expertise of the Group’s economists.
- This comprehensive approach allows for a cross-cutting and consistent view of risks, essential for comparing markets, evaluating investments, and securing commercial relationships.
The global economy finds itself at a critical juncture, navigating a complex landscape of trade tensions, geopolitical fragmentation, and rising corporate defaults. As businesses venture internationally, the need for robust risk assessment has never been greater. Coface, a global leader in trade credit insurance, has released its Risk Review and accompanying Country & Sector Risk Guide, designed to provide companies with the insights needed to navigate these turbulent waters.
A Global and Structured View of International Risks
The edition of the Coface Guide offers an in-depth analysis of over 160 countries and 13 major sectors, leveraging the expertise of the Group’s economists. Each country is evaluated based on a synthesis of macroeconomic dynamics, financial solidity, the political and institutional environment, the business climate, and credit risk. Complementing this country-level assessment is a sector-by-sector analysis identifying vulnerabilities as well as pockets of resilience and growth worldwide.
This comprehensive approach allows for a cross-cutting and consistent view of risks, essential for comparing markets, evaluating investments, and securing commercial relationships. Coface projects global growth of +2.6% in , a slight decrease from the +2.8% recorded in . Despite this modest slowdown, global trade is expected to grow by +3.9% in .
Who Needs This Guide?
The guide is aimed at executives, CFOs, credit managers, and international development leaders who need to answer critical questions such as: Is it still safe to export to this market? Is this partner reliable in the current context? Which sector is becoming more fragile? Coface has designed the guide to provide rigorous answers, drawing on over eight decades of experience in analyzing country risk and leveraging data from thousands of international commercial transactions.
The release of the guide comes as geopolitical risks are increasingly materializing, with recent events in Latin America, Iran, and Greenland creating uncertainty. Financial risks are also emerging, driven by high debt levels, asset valuations, and a persistent high-interest rate environment. Macroeconomic risks are further compounded by vagaries in US economic policy and the potential for renewed trade clashes amid escalating international competition and weakening global cooperation.
Resilience Amidst Turbulence
Despite these challenges, Coface’s Risk Review signals a surprisingly resilient outlook. The company has made seven country risk assessment changes, including six upgrades, and nine sector rating changes, with seven upgrades. This suggests that while risks are present, opportunities for growth and stability remain.
The resilience observed in can be attributed to two key factors. First, the shocks to the global economy were less severe than anticipated, particularly concerning tariffs. Second, companies demonstrated a remarkable ability to adapt, especially those with international operations, reinforcing the strength and interdependence of globalization.
Rising Corporate Insolvencies
However, the outlook isn’t uniformly positive. Coface noted a 15% increase in corporate insolvencies in the US during the second half of , a trend that warrants close monitoring. The guide’s sector analysis will be crucial in identifying industries most vulnerable to defaults and bankruptcies, which are expected to rise globally.
The Role of Artificial Intelligence
The Coface Country Risk Conference, marking the 30th anniversary of the event, will delve deeper into these issues. A key session will address the impact of artificial intelligence on the job market, examining which sectors and jobs are most exposed to disruption while also acknowledging the potential productivity gains. Speakers at the conference include Andrew Bishop, Senior Partner & Global Head of Policy Research at Signum; Thomas Gomart, Director at IFRI; Agatha Kratz, Partner at Rhodium Group; and Tania Sollogoub, Head of Research countries & Global geopolitics at Crédit Agricole Group.
The conference will also feature an economic outlook for from Jean-Christophe Caffet, Coface Chief Economist, and a discussion on the implications of rising power rivalries for globalization and economic stability. Axelle Arquie, Co-founder of the Observatory for Threatened and Emerging Jobs, and Aurélien Duthoit, Sector Senior Analyst at Coface, will contribute to the discussion on AI’s impact on employment.
As Coface CEO Xavier Durand will open the conference, the message is clear: understanding and proactively managing risk is paramount in today’s volatile global environment. The Country Risk Guide and the accompanying conference are designed to equip businesses with the tools and insights they need to navigate these challenges and secure their future.
The Risk Review and Country Risk Guide are available for download on the Coface website.