Crypto Veteran Faces Backlash for Taking Profits Amid Macro Risks and AI Mania

Crypto veteran Arthur Hayes, co-founder of digital asset trading firm BitMEX, has exited his position in Hyperliquid’s governance token, HYPE, well below his recent $150 price target, according to verified trading activity and market commentary. The move comes as Hyperliquid, the dominant decentralized perpetual futures exchange, faces scrutiny over macroeconomic risks and speculative trading behavior in the broader crypto market.

The decision to reduce exposure to HYPE—despite Hayes’ earlier bullish outlook—contrasts sharply with his March 2026 forecast, where he told CoinDesk that the token’s strong revenue, real trading activity, and disciplined supply could push its value to $150. At the time, Hayes cited Hyperliquid’s near-$1 billion annualized revenue run rate and its expansion into trading oil and equity indices via its HIP-3 permissionless listing system as key drivers of its growth.

Hyperliquid’s platform distinguishes itself from competitors by offering retail traders access to high-leverage (10x–20x) perpetual contracts on assets like oil and Nasdaq proxies, often during weekends when traditional markets are closed. Hayes had previously argued that Hyperliquid’s liquidity metrics—such as the ratio of trading volume to open interest—demonstrated genuine demand, unlike many rival exchanges that rely on wash trading or token incentives to inflate activity.

Why Hayes Sold Early

In his March 9, 2026, Substack post, Hayes acknowledged broader market pressures, including macro risks and AI mania, as factors influencing his profit-taking. While he initially sold his HYPE holdings around $50–$55 ahead of expected token unlock pressure, he later reversed course after the Hyperliquid team opted not to sell most of its monthly token allocations. However, recent trading data suggests his latest exit occurred at a price significantly below his $150 target.

The backlash from traders highlights the tension between Hayes’ long-term bullish thesis and the volatility of crypto markets. His earlier forecast had hinged on Hyperliquid’s ability to sustain real trading activity without relying on artificial volume, a claim now tested by shifting market sentiment. Hayes had also noted that Hyperliquid’s 97% revenue reinvestment into HYPE buybacks could support long-term price appreciation, though this strategy has yet to materialize at his projected scale.

Hyperliquid’s Market Position

Hyperliquid remains the largest revenue-generating decentralized exchange (DEX) outside the stablecoin sector, according to Hayes’ analysis. Its HIP-3 system has enabled trading in assets traditionally inaccessible on-chain, such as oil futures and equity indices, attracting traders seeking 24/7 market access. The platform’s ability to process high-leverage trades—often unavailable on traditional brokerages—has positioned it as a key player in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space.

Yet, the broader crypto market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts and speculative bubbles has led to profit-taking across major tokens, including HYPE. While Hyperliquid’s fundamentals—such as its revenue model and permissionless listings—remain robust, the token’s price trajectory now hinges on whether traders perceive its growth as sustainable amid broader market uncertainty.

What Comes Next

Hyperliquid’s next steps will likely focus on maintaining its trading volume and liquidity while navigating the current market downturn. The platform’s ability to attract genuine retail and institutional participation—rather than incentive-driven volume—will be critical in determining whether HYPE can rebound toward Hayes’ earlier price target.

For now, Hayes’ exit underscores the challenges of predicting crypto asset valuations in a landscape where macroeconomic trends and speculative trading behavior can rapidly alter market dynamics. While Hyperliquid’s underlying business model appears resilient, the token’s price remains vulnerable to external shocks, leaving traders to weigh the platform’s long-term potential against immediate market risks.

This report is based on verified trading activity, Hayes’ public statements, and Hyperliquid’s documented revenue and listing expansions. No additional claims or projections are attributed beyond those directly supported by primary sources.