Damm vs. Nardi Prediction & Odds: Open Sud de France 2026

Montpellier, France – Martin Damm Jr. And Luca Nardi are set to clash in the quarterfinals of the Open Sud de France on Friday, February 6th, with Damm entering the match as the betting favorite.

According to odds from BetMGM Sportsbook, Damm is favored at -130, while Nardi is listed at +100. This translates to a 56.5% implied probability of Damm winning the match, based on the moneyline.

The match will be played on a hard court surface at the Sud de France Arena in Montpellier. Tennis fans in the UK can watch the match on Sky Sports Tennis, while viewers in the USA can tune in to the Tennis Channel.

Damm, currently ranked 160th, boasts a strong record on hard courts over the past 12 months, with 11 wins and only 3 losses. His game is characterized by a dominant serve, winning 89.1% of his service games, and a 37.0% conversion rate on break-point opportunities (27 of 73).

However, Damm’s recent form includes a straight-sets defeat to Valentin Vacherot 4-6, 4-6, 4-6 in the Round of 128 of the Australian Open on January 19th. This early exit will likely fuel his determination to perform well in Montpellier.

Nardi, ranked 106th, has a more inconsistent record on hard courts, with 11 wins and 14 losses over the last year. He maintains a 68.9% winning percentage on his own serve but struggles on return games, winning only 24.4% of the time. Nardi has converted 35.2% of his break points (57 of 162), ranking him 71st in that category.

Nardi also experienced a first-round loss at the Australian Open, falling to Yibing Wu 5-7, 6-4, 4-6, 2-6 on January 19th. This result adds pressure on Nardi to demonstrate improved performance in France.

Dimers.com, utilizing machine learning and statistical analysis, predicts Damm has a 52% chance of winning the match. However, betting odds from the site suggest a slightly higher probability for Damm, with a moneyline of -122 compared to Nardi’s +102.

According to Dimers, a potential best bet for the match is Luca Nardi to win the first set, with odds of -125.

The tournament offers a prize for the winner, with Damm currently having +750 odds to win the tournament and Nardi at +1100.

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