Europe Faces Potential Kerosene Shortage and Flight Cancellations

Europe faces a systemic jet fuel shortage that could trigger severe flight cancellations during the summer travel season, according to warnings from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and industry experts. Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA, stated on April 16, 2026, that Europe has maybe 6 weeks or so [of] jet fuel left if oil supplies remain blocked by the ongoing war with Iran.

The crisis is driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route. The Airports Council International Europe (ACI Europe) has alerted European Commission Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas that systemic shortages could become a reality if the shipping route is not fully reopened within a 21-day window.

Naval Blockade and Geopolitical Triggers

The supply disruption escalated on April 13, 2026, when the United States began a naval blockade of ships entering and leaving Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. This action followed the collapse of peace negotiations between the U.S. And Iran over the weekend of April 12-13, 2026.

The U.S. Blockade aims to increase pressure on Tehran by cutting Iran’s oil exports. However, the resulting halt in traffic through the waterway has blocked approximately 170 million barrels of oil in the Persian Gulf, creating severe disruptions for the European aviation supply chain.

European Aviation Vulnerability

Europe is particularly exposed to this disruption due to its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern energy. The region typically sources more than 60% of its jet fuel from refineries in the Gulf, with over 40% of that supply shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.

The strategic importance of the waterway is reflected in global trade figures, as the Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of the global oil trade and 40% of the world’s jet fuel supply.

This dependency has led to a rapid increase in operating costs for airlines. Jet fuel prices have more than doubled since the conflict began, rising from pre-conflict levels of approximately $750 per tonne to current prices of $1,573 per tonne.

Flight Cancellations and Market Outlook

Analysts warn that the shortage will translate into significant operational cuts. Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, told CNBC on April 15, 2026, that the situation could become systemic within three to four weeks.

Galimberti noted that you can have severe cuts of flights in Europe already starting in May and June if the blockade persists. Rico Luman, a senior economist at ING, echoed these concerns, stating that supplies from the Middle East have run out and replacements are urgently needed.

Airlines have already begun implementing contingency measures, including reducing flight capacity on certain routes and canceling flights to manage dwindling fuel reserves.

Global Economic Implications

While Europe is facing an imminent aviation crisis, the IEA warns that the broader energy crisis will have global repercussions. Fatih Birol described the current situation as the largest energy crisis the world has ever faced.

In the past there was a group called ‘Dire Straits’. It’s a dire strait now, and it is going to have major implications for the global economy. And the longer it goes, the worse it will be for the economic growth and inflation around the world.

Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director

The IEA identified several nations that will be hit harder than others by the Hormuz blockade, including:

• Japan
• South Korea
• India
• China
• Pakistan
• Bangladesh

Birol emphasized that the most severe suffering will occur in developing countries across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The overall economic impact is expected to manifest as higher prices for petrol, gas, and electricity globally.