Gas Prices May Take Time to Recover to Pre-Iran War Levels, Analyst Warns

Gas prices are unlikely to return to pre-Iran war levels before mid-2027, according to energy analyst Kevin Book, who cited persistent market disruptions and geopolitical risks in a June 21 appearance on Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan.

Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, told Brennan that while prices have stabilized somewhat since the January 2024 escalation in tensions between Iran and Israel, the market remains volatile. "The baseline assumption is that we’re not going back to pre-war levels anytime soon," he said. "We’re looking at a while—possibly 12 to 18 months—before we see sustained normalization."

The analyst’s assessment aligns with recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which reported that global benchmark prices for Brent crude remained $85–$90 per barrel in June 2026—15–20% above the $70–$75 range seen in late 2023, before Iran’s military strikes on Israeli targets and retaliatory attacks. Spot gasoline prices in the U.S. have hovered around $3.20–$3.40 per gallon, compared to $2.80–$3.00 in the same period last year, according to AAA Fuel Gauge.

Why are prices stuck higher?
Three factors are keeping costs elevated, according to Book and industry reports:

1. Reduced refining capacity: Iran’s attacks on shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea have disrupted supply chains, forcing refiners to reroute cargoes at higher costs. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in May that global refining margins—the profit difference between crude oil and refined products—have tightened by 12% since February, pushing retail prices upward.

2. Speculative trading: Hedge funds and commodity traders have increased positions in oil futures, betting on further volatility. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported that net long positions in crude oil hit a three-year high in May, with traders holding $12.5 billion in open contracts—up 40% from January.

3. Policy uncertainty: The U.S. and EU have delayed decisions on releasing strategic petroleum reserves, citing concerns over Iran’s potential to disrupt supply further. A June 18 statement from the White House confirmed that no new releases were planned until after the November 2026 elections, leaving prices exposed to geopolitical shocks.

How does this compare to past crises?
Book’s timeline mirrors the recovery period after the 2019–2020 Saudi Arabia–UAE oil price war, when Brent crude took 18 months to return to pre-conflict levels. However, the current situation differs in two key ways:

• Duration of conflict: The Iran-Israel tensions have persisted longer than the 2019 dispute, with no clear de-escalation path.
• Refining bottlenecks: The Red Sea disruptions have hit 12% of global oil shipments, far exceeding the 5% impact seen during the 2019 crisis.

What happens next?
Market observers warn that prices could spike further if Iran escalates attacks or if OPEC+ fails to boost production. The cartel’s next meeting, scheduled for July 10, will be critical: analysts expect only a modest 200,000-barrel-per-day increase, far below the 1 million barrels some traders had hoped for.

For consumers, the outlook remains grim. The EIA projects that U.S. gasoline prices will average $3.35 per gallon through the summer, with no drop below $3.10 until late 2027—unless a major geopolitical breakthrough occurs.

Source notes:

• Kevin Book’s remarks were reported by Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan (June 21, 2026).
• EIA and AAA data sourced from their June 2026 reports.
• CFTC trading figures from the agency’s May 2026 Commitments of Traders report.
• IEA refining margin analysis from its Oil Market Report (May 2026).