How Termina Ranked the 2026 Seed 100 & Seed 40: AI’s Growing Impact on Top Early-Stage VC Investors

Termina’s AI-Powered Data Analysis Shapes Business Insider’s 2026 Seed 100 and Seed 40 Lists

Business Insider’s annual Seed 100 and Seed 40 rankings—now in their sixth year—have become a benchmark for identifying the world’s most successful seed-stage investors, and the methodology behind them has evolved significantly in 2026. At the core of this year’s rankings is Termina, a data analytics firm specializing in venture capital and private equity assessment, which analyzed 25 key success attributes across 1,974 investors to determine who made the cut. The results reflect a seismic shift in seed investing: artificial intelligence has emerged as the defining factor in investor performance, reshaping the rankings and likely influencing the industry for years to come.

AI as the Deciding Factor in Seed Investing

This year’s rankings placed a heavier emphasis on investors with a demonstrated track record in AI-related startups. Termina’s analysis, which drew on Crunchbase and PitchBook data, revealed that those with prior investments in AI-driven companies saw their rankings improve significantly. The methodology now weighs recent investments more heavily, particularly those that attracted follow-on funding—a clear signal of market confidence.

“Exits—whether through IPOs or acquisitions—remain the strongest differentiator for seed investors,” said Jake Ellowitz, chief technology officer and cofounder of Termina. “But this year, we’ve seen AI investments not just as a trend, but as a decisive factor in long-term success.”

The 2026 Seed 100 list includes 100 investors, while the Seed 40—a subset of the top performers—highlights those with the most robust exit records. Among the changes: 22 investors improved their rankings, 30 remained stable or declined, and 48 new names were added. Notably, 27 investors from the original 2021 Seed 100 list reappeared, underscoring the consistency of top-tier seed investors.

Methodology Updates: Activity and Sector Vision

Termina refined its approach this year to better reflect the dynamic nature of seed investing. The firm adjusted its activity metric to ensure only actively investing seed investors were considered, removing those who had become inactive. This change aligns with the goal of identifying investors who remain engaged in the market.

Another key update was the introduction of a “counter-consensus indicator” for sector selection. While the methodology did not fully implement this in 2026, Termina acknowledged that visionary investors—those who bet early on sectors like AI—have historically outperformed. This year’s rankings suggest that such foresight continues to pay off.

“Our models have always factored in investment activity, but we’ve made them more inclusive,” Ellowitz noted. “The goal is to celebrate investors who are not just successful in the past, but who are actively shaping the future.”

Diversity and Growth in Seed Investing

The 2026 rankings also highlight progress in diversity within the seed investing ecosystem. Women comprised 11% of the investors analyzed this year—a notable 8% increase from the 2021 Seed 100 list. While still underrepresented, this upward trend signals growing inclusion in a traditionally male-dominated field.

Termina’s analysis also revealed fluctuations in seed investment activity over the past decade. The number of annual seed investments per active investor has varied by up to 50% since 2010, reflecting broader market cycles. The firm attributed these swings to inconsistent data coverage across providers but emphasized that its models now better account for these variations.

What Comes Next?

Looking ahead, Termina plans to further refine its methodology, particularly in how it evaluates sector bets. The firm is exploring ways to quantify an investor’s ability to identify emerging trends before they become mainstream—a skill that has defined the top performers in recent years.

“AI is no longer just a sector; it’s a lens through which we assess investor acumen,” said Michael Mao, a data scientist at Termina. “The investors who thrive in this new landscape are those who understand not just the technology, but the broader implications for business and society.”

As the venture capital landscape continues to evolve, Termina’s rankings will remain a critical tool for startups seeking funding and investors looking to validate their strategies. With AI at the forefront of seed-stage innovation, the 2026 Seed 100 and Seed 40 lists serve as both a historical record and a roadmap for the future of early-stage investing.