Italy’s Possible Return to the 2026 World Cup: Scenarios and Requirements

Italy has failed to qualify for the 2026 World Cup, marking the third consecutive tournament the national team will miss after previous absences from the 2018 and 2022 editions.

The Azzurri’s campaign ended following a defeat to Bosnia and Herzegovina in Zenica. According to reporting from The Sporting News, Italy initially took the lead in the fixture with a goal from Moise Kean.

The momentum shifted in the second half when Alessandro Bastoni received a red card. Despite a strong performance by goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, who stopped numerous attempts in the final stages of the match, Bosnia and Herzegovina secured the victory with a final penalty.

The Path to Elimination

To reach the 2026 tournament, Italy was required to navigate a specific UEFA playoff path. As detailed by AP News, the team first had to defeat Northern Ireland in a playoff match in March 2026 before facing either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The loss in the final stage of this playoff process confirmed Italy’s exclusion from the tournament. This result continues a period of struggle for the second-most successful side in World Cup history, which has struggled to develop new stars in recent years.

The Sporting News noted that since 2022, only Gianluigi Donnarumma has earned a Ballon d’Or nomination from the Italian squad, suggesting a decline following the generation that won the 2020 European Championships, which included players such as Giorgio Chiellini, Leonardo Bonucci, Marco Verratti, and Jorginho.

Speculation on FIFA Re-entry

Despite the on-field elimination, Italian media outlets are currently discussing the possibility of a ripescaggio, or a wildcard re-entry, into the competition. Reports from ilGiornale, Adnkronos, and Virgilio indicate that there is speculation regarding specific scenarios in which FIFA could allow Italy to return to the 2026 World Cup.

These reports suggest that the Italian football community is monitoring potential FIFA decisions that could open a path for the team to be reinstated and are considering which group the team might join if such a scenario occurs.

Historical Context and Grouping

Prior to their elimination, the potential group stage placement for Italy had been a point of analysis. It was confirmed that any team qualifying through the playoffs would be placed in Pot 4.

Under those regulations, Italy would have faced a challenging draw, as Pot 1 included the host nations—Canada, Mexico, and the United States—alongside other top-ranked European and South American teams. Pot 2 contained contenders such as Croatia, while Pot 3 included teams like Norway, Egypt, and Scotland.

The current situation leaves the Italian national team in a precarious position, with some reports, including those from Sportmediaset, suggesting that the failure has led to discussions regarding the possible commissariamento (administrative takeover) of the FIGC, which could impact major Serie A clubs and the national team.