Polymarket Traders Profit from Iran Ceasefire Amid Insider Trading Fears

A series of highly profitable bets on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket regarding a ceasefire between the United States and Iran has triggered widespread concerns over potential insider trading. Multiple traders secured significant gains by wagering on the agreement shortly before it was publicly confirmed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

According to data shared by the blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain, three newly created wallets profited a combined $484,575 by betting that the U.S. And Iran would agree to a ceasefire by April 7, 2026. These wallets were created and funded on Tuesday, April 1, 2026, and had no prior on-chain activity before placing their bets on the platform.

The specific profits secured by these three wallets were $200,525, $158,600, and $125,450. The yes bets were placed at probabilities ranging between 2.9% and 10.3%.

Timing of Trades and Public Announcements

The timing of the trades has drawn scrutiny from experts due to their proximity to official government communications. One trader placed their first trade on the ceasefire market at 1:59 pm UTC on Tuesday, April 1, 2026. This occurred approximately eight and a half hours before President Donald Trump confirmed the ceasefire agreement in a Truth Social post at 10:32 pm UTC on the same day.

Other traders acted even earlier, with first bets placed at 10:01 am UTC on Tuesday, April 1, 2026, and 8:50 pm UTC on Monday, March 31, 2026. These bets were paid out after both nations agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, April 1, 2026, although neither side ruled out further military action.

Additional suspicious activity was noted around March 21, 2026. Eight newly created accounts bet a total of nearly $70,000 on a ceasefire. These accounts stood to make nearly $820,000 if a deal was reached before March 31, 2026. This activity coincided with a period where President Trump first appeared to double down on war with Iran before suggesting in a Truth Social post that he was considering winding down military operations.

Patterns of Prescient Trading

The ceasefire bets are part of a broader pattern of remarkably accurate predictions on the platform. An analysis shared with CNN by the analytics company Bubblemaps identified a trader who has made nearly $1 million since 2024 through dozens of well-timed bets on U.S. And Israeli military actions against Iran.

This specific trader achieved a 93% win rate on five-figure wagers concerning Iran, often placing bets hours before unannounced military operations occurred. These include:

• Israeli strikes in October 2024.
• U.S. Airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025.
• A joint U.S.-Israeli surprise attack in February 2026, which initiated the current war.

Separately, blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain flagged a trader known as BlueHorseshoe86, who netted $194,000 from the U.S.-Iran ceasefire bet. This followed a previous gain of $260,000 from a bet that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power, tied to his capture in January 2026.

Regulatory and Market Implications

The anonymity of Polymarket accounts and the use of crypto wallets make it difficult to trace the identities of the traders. Because the bets were placed on Polymarket’s international site, they remain outside the reach of U.S. Regulations.

All of Here’s strong signaling of insider activity, based on the amount they made, the markets they bet on, the timing of their trades, the success rates of these trades, and the fact that they are connected on-chain.

Nick Vaiman, CEO of Bubblemaps

Ben Yorke, formerly a researcher with CoinTelegraph, stated that the wallets definitely [look like] someone with some degree of inside info.

Prediction markets are experiencing rapid growth, with monthly trading volumes consistently surpassing $10 billion. However, this growth has led to increased scrutiny from global lawmakers and regulators concerned about market manipulation and the rise of insider trading on platforms where users wager on geopolitical events, and warfare.