Saurabh Mukherjea Shifts to 50-50 Indian and Global Investment Split

Saurabh Mukherjea, the founder of Marcellus Investment Managers, has shifted his personal investment portfolio to a 50-50 split between Indian and global assets. This strategic pivot follows a previous allocation where he held 70% exposure to India four years ago.

Mukherjea has maintained this equal distribution between domestic and international investments for the past three years. The move mirrors the advice he provides to clients regarding the necessity of global diversification.

Repositioning the Consistent Compounder Portfolio

Marcellus has been repositioning its flagship Consistent Compounder Portfolio (CCP) based on research conducted for the book Breakpoint. This research indicated that the Indian middle class is experiencing severe stress, characterized by stalled real wage growth over a period of five to six years and a decline in available jobs.

the firm identified that retail investors in futures and options (F&O) trading were losing an estimated $10 billion to $11 billion annually. These factors led Mukherjea to conclude that domestic consumption in India is facing a meaningful slowdown.

Marcellus is reducing its exposure to domestic consumption and increasing its focus on export-oriented businesses. The firm is also building positions in companies expected to benefit from rising non-performing assets (NPAs) within the Indian banking system.

Market Trends and Fund Flows

Investor behavior is reflecting these shifts, with steady inflows into the GIFT City global offering managed by Marcellus, which now totals approximately ₹600 crore. Mukherjea attributed the growth in overseas investment to the efforts of the RBI, the government, and GIFT City authorities in making such investments more cost-effective and tax-efficient.

Conversely, Marcellus experienced outflows from its local products for three consecutive years, though these outflows have stabilized in recent months. Mukherjea noted that investors are reconsidering heavy investments in several specific sectors, including:

• Public Sector Undertakings (PSU) companies
• Power infrastructure
• Road builders

The firm believes these sectors will face pressure as oil prices surge heading into fiscal year 2027 and government finances tighten.

Strategic Shift in Economic Models

Mukherjea has stated that India’s 30-year economic model has ended, suggesting a necessary pivot from a reliance on Information Technology (IT) toward manufacturing. This transition aligns with the firm’s broader strategy to move away from domestic-centric consumption plays toward global and export-led growth.