Shipping Security Risks Keep Markets Tight for Months

Despite reports that shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz have reopened, global energy markets remain volatile due to persistent risks from naval mines, geopolitical mistrust, and unresolved vessel detentions, according to industry analysts and shipping data.

While several major oil tankers have resumed transit through the strategic waterway following a temporary de-escalation in regional tensions, underlying vulnerabilities continue to disrupt supply chains and keep freight and insurance costs elevated, said maritime security experts monitoring the Gulf.

Satellite tracking data from maritime intelligence firm Lloyd’s List Intelligence shows that although daily transits through the Strait have increased by approximately 40% since mid-March, the number of vessels delaying transit or taking longer detours around Oman remains significantly above pre-crisis levels.

“The physical reopening of the lane doesn’t erase the psychological and operational barriers,” said Capt. Rahim al-Sayegh, a former Iraqi naval officer now advising Gulf shipping firms. “Insurers still demand higher premiums, crews are reluctant to volunteer for Hormuz transits, and charterers are building in extra days — all of which adds friction to the system.”

These ongoing frictions are contributing to sustained pressure on crude oil prices, which have traded in a narrow band between $80 and $90 per barrel for Brent crude over the past six weeks, despite ample global inventories and weakening demand indicators from China and Europe.

Analysts at Energy Aspects noted in a recent client brief that the market is pricing in a “persistent risk premium” of roughly $5 to $7 per barrel, attributing it not to actual supply disruptions but to the continued threat of mine laying, drone interference, or sudden vessel seizures — even if such events have not occurred in recent weeks.

Adding to the complexity, at least three commercial vessels remain under detention or delayed release in Iranian ports, according to data compiled by the shipping advocacy group BIMCO. While their identities and cargoes have not been publicly disclosed due to ongoing negotiations, industry sources confirm they include a chemical tanker and two liquefied natural gas carriers.

“Until those vessels are released and there is a verifiable mechanism to prevent future detentions, the market will treat Hormuz as conditionally open,” said Edward Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup. “It’s not about whether ships can pass — it’s about whether they can pass without risk.”

Insurance data from Lloyd’s of London confirms that war risk premiums for tankers transiting the Strait remain at 0.15% of vessel value per transit — triple the level seen in early 2023 — reflecting ongoing concern over mine threats, even though no new mine sightings have been reported since February.

Regional diplomats say backchannel talks between Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Oman continue to explore confidence-building measures, including joint mine-sweeping patrols and advance notice protocols for naval exercises. However, no formal agreement has been reached, and military activity in the northern Gulf remains elevated.

For now, energy traders are adjusting to a market where physical flows are largely uninterrupted, but psychological and operational barriers keep the system from returning to pre-2023 norms. As one senior oil trader at a European major put it, “We’re not seeing shortages — we’re seeing hesitation. And in tight markets, hesitation is enough to keep prices up.”