Trump’s Endorsement Irrelevant: 65% of Brazilian Voters Unaffected by U.S. Presidential Candidate Support

A new Datafolha poll shows that 65% of Brazilian voters say former U.S. President Donald Trump’s endorsement of a presidential candidate in Brazil would make no difference in their voting decision, according to multiple verified reports from Folha de S.Paulo, G1, and Poder360.

The finding underscores a persistent disconnect between the Bolsonaro family’s efforts to leverage Trump’s political capital and public sentiment, as the former U.S. president has repeatedly expressed support for candidates aligned with Jair Bolsonaro’s political base. Datafolha, Brazil’s leading polling firm, conducted the survey between June 10 and June 14, 2026, with a nationally representative sample of 2,000 voters.

“The data shows that, for most Brazilians, Trump’s endorsement is simply not a factor in their decision-making,” said a Folha de S.Paulo analysis of the results. “This reflects a broader trend where international figures, even those with high visibility, have limited sway over domestic elections when voters prioritize local economic and social issues.”

The poll comes as the Bolsonaro family—including former President Jair Bolsonaro and his sons, Eduardo and Carlos—has aggressively sought Trump’s backing ahead of Brazil’s October 2026 presidential election. Trump has publicly backed Bolsonaro-aligned candidates, including Carlos Bolsonaro in his bid for governor of Rio de Janeiro.

Why the numbers matter

The 65% figure is notably higher than similar polls from 2022, when Trump’s endorsement was seen as a potential swing factor for Bolsonaro’s re-election campaign. At that time, around 40% of voters said they would consider Trump’s support, according to Datafolha archives. The shift reflects both a decline in Bolsonaro’s political capital and a growing skepticism toward foreign endorsements in Brazil’s polarized political climate.

“This isn’t just about Trump,” said political scientist Marcelo Burman of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, cited by G1. “It’s about the broader erosion of Bolsonaro’s influence. His family’s attempts to internationalize their campaign—whether through Trump or other foreign allies—have failed to resonate with a electorate focused on inflation, healthcare, and corruption scandals.”

Bolsonaro’s sons, particularly Carlos, have been central to the family’s strategy of courting Trump, with Carlos Bolsonaro meeting with Trump in Florida in May 2026. However, the poll suggests these efforts have had minimal impact on voter behavior. “The data is a clear signal that the Bolsonaro family’s gambit to use Trump as a political crutch is not paying off,” said a Poder360 editorial.

What the poll reveals about voter priorities

The Datafolha survey also highlighted that only 12% of voters said Trump’s endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate, while 23% said it would make them less likely. This suggests that, for some voters, Trump’s association with Bolsonaro’s faction is now a liability rather than an asset.

Economic concerns remain the dominant factor for Brazilian voters, with 78% citing inflation and unemployment as their top issues, according to the same poll. “When people are struggling to afford basic goods, a tweet from Trump doesn’t change their calculus,” said Burman.

The findings contrast sharply with Bolsonaro’s 2018 campaign, when his alignment with then-President Donald Trump was framed as a strength, particularly among conservative voters. Today, that narrative has weakened, as Bolsonaro’s approval ratings have plummeted to single digits in most polls.

How the media frames the story

While outlets like Folha de S.Paulo and G1 presented the Datafolha results as evidence of the Bolsonaro family’s strategic missteps, Revista Fórum—known for its critical stance toward Bolsonaro—headlined the story as proof of the “most stupid and persistent errors” of the family’s political maneuvering. The outlet’s framing emphasized the “waste of resources” spent on courting Trump, arguing that the family’s focus on foreign endorsements distracted from domestic policy failures.

“The Bolsonaro family’s obsession with Trump has become a running joke among voters,” said Revista Fórum in an editorial. “While they chase international validation, Brazilians are left to deal with the consequences of their neglect of local governance.”

In contrast, pro-Bolsonaro outlets have downplayed the poll’s significance, arguing that Trump’s endorsement still holds weight among the candidate’s core base. However, even these sources acknowledged that the overall impact is limited.

What happens next for Bolsonaro’s campaign

With the election less than four months away, the Bolsonaro family is likely to double down on Trump’s endorsement, particularly in swing states where the margin is tight. However, the Datafolha poll suggests that any boost from Trump’s support will be marginal at best.

Analysts predict that Bolsonaro’s campaign will now shift focus to grassroots mobilization, given the limited utility of foreign endorsements. “The family’s strategy has always been reactive,” said Burman. “Now, they’ll have to rely on their own ground game—or risk being left behind.”

For voters, the poll serves as a reminder that, in Brazil’s current climate, domestic issues—and not international alliances—will determine the outcome of the election.