Weekend Storm: Snow, Sleet or Rain for Maryland & Northern Virginia?

Potential Winter Storm Looms Over Maryland and Northern Virginia

Residents of Maryland and Northern Virginia are bracing for a potential winter storm this weekend, though the exact nature of the precipitation remains highly uncertain. Forecast models have indicated a storm system moving into the region, but whether it will bring accumulating snow, a wintry mix, or primarily rain is still unknown.

The National Weather Service has issued a limited threat risk for snow and sleet on Sunday for much of the area, acknowledging the possibility of impactful weather but also highlighting the considerable uncertainty. The situation is described as a “tug-of-war” between cold air moving in from the north and a strong storm system developing in the south and west.

Multiple weather systems are interacting high above the ground, over eastern Canada and New England. These systems are notoriously difficult to predict, as their positions can shift and wobble, influencing whether cold air remains locked in place or warmer air pushes northward. Simultaneously, a powerful system is building in the southern Plains and is expected to track eastward toward the Carolinas by Sunday.

The timing of these systems is crucial. As the storm approaches, cold air near the surface is expected to retreat. If this cold air persists long enough, parts of the region could experience snow or sleet, particularly at the onset of the event. However, a faster influx of warmer air would likely result in rain. A middle-ground scenario, with temperatures hovering near freezing, could lead to a mix of all three precipitation types.

The strength of the storm itself is another significant factor. A stronger system could cool the air as precipitation intensifies, potentially causing rain to briefly change back to snow even if temperatures are marginally above freezing. This possibility explains why snow remains a potential outcome despite recent warmer trends.

Currently, forecast models are “scattered,” meaning they are not in agreement. Some models predict a snowier outcome, while others lean toward rain, and a few suggest that the heaviest precipitation will remain south of the area. This lack of consensus underscores the difficulty in making a precise forecast at this time.

As of Wednesday, February 11, 2026, the National Weather Service reports mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 40°F (4°C) at Washington/Dulles International Airport. The extended forecast for Fairfax, Virginia, indicates isolated showers tonight, followed by mostly sunny conditions on Wednesday with a high near 45°F. Temperatures are expected to remain relatively mild through Saturday, with sunny skies and a high of 51°F. However, Sunday brings a chance of rain.

For now, residents are advised that a storm is possible this weekend, but the impacts remain uncertain. Small changes in the storm’s track or the temperature profile could significantly alter the local conditions. More clarity is expected as the week progresses and the storm draws closer. The National Weather Service encourages residents to stay informed and prepared for a range of potential outcomes.