[2024 미국 대선]The feared ‘Trump 2.0’ becomes a reality… Static retaliation and America-first policy seem likely to sway

Upheaval in alliance relations, including denigration of Korea as a “money machine”

The “enemy within” divide deepens among opponents, including the Democratic Party.

Impromptu and unpredictable policies at home and abroad… risk concerns

As former Republican President Donald Trump was elected in the US presidential election on the 5th (local time), ‘Trump 2.0’, which half of Americans and countries around the world had been concerned about, has become a reality. President-elect Trump, who re-enters the White House after four years, is expected to push the ‘America First’ policy he advocated during his time in office more quickly and intensely in all areas, including diplomacy, security, industry, and trade. The relationship between Korea and the United States is also expected to be challenged by his return to power, as he has recognized the alliance as a transactional object and has called for increased defense cost sharing, calling Korea a “money machine.”

Reuters Yonhap News

On the 6th, as victory in the presidential election became likely, President-elect Trump appeared in front of supporters gathered at the Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida and said, “I will not rest until we create a strong, safe, and prosperous America.” “A true golden age for America will arrive,” he said. He said that his presidential victory “will allow us to make America great again,” and that “we will all start by putting America first.”

He declared his America-first policy by mentioning ‘Make America Great Again,’ which has become a common noun for his passionate supporters and the far-right wing of the Republican Party.

President-elect Trump has pledged to retaliate against his political opponents if he is re-elected. Even during the election campaign, he referred to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Democrat) as an ‘internal enemy’ and even mentioned that the National Guard could be mobilized in an emergency. The crisis of American democracy and the conflict in American society, which have deepened due to the attempt to disobey the 2020 presidential election and the invasion of Congress on January 6, 2021, are expected to further intensify.

President-elect Trump, who is on trial for dozens of serious crimes, including allegations of silencing a sexual scandal, has also shown open hostility toward judicial authorities. There is speculation that he may try to damage the Ministry of Justice, as well as neutralize the investigation by firing the special prosecutor who indicted him and exercising his ‘right to self-pardon.’ The task of filling federal government positions with ‘loyalists’ is also expected to be in turmoil.

It appears that the hard-line immigration policies that have been announced, such as border closures and forced deportation of undocumented immigrants, will also be implemented. President-elect Trump also said on this day, “We will fix our border, we will fix everything about our country.”

In addition, with the Republican Party regaining control of the Senate, President-elect Trump can exercise even greater executive power. If the revision of the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement) is implemented and pledges such as universal tariffs of 10-20% on all imported products and high tariffs of more than 60% on all Chinese imports are put into practice, it is expected to bring shock waves to the global economy. .

As with Trump’s first term, it is highly likely that improvisation and unpredictability will be the keywords in Trump’s second term. In particular, former President Trump’s unique style is expected to stand out at the foreign policy level. There are speculations that he, who has assured that “he will end the war in Ukraine on his first day in office,” may pressure Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war with Russia and stop providing security support to Ukraine.

Korea is also expected to fall under the direct influence of the ‘Trump risk’. President-elect Trump recently said, “If I were president, I would have received $10 billion (approximately 14 trillion won)” regarding the defense cost sharing for U.S. troops stationed in Korea. This is the background to concerns that there will be a request for renegotiation of the special agreement on defense cost sharing for U.S. forces in Korea concluded between Korea and the United States. Since he has been showing off his close relationship with North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un, he may attempt dialogue between North Korea and the United States.

President-elect Trump plans to induce investment and production in the United States by imposing tariffs on allies without exception. There are observations that it is inevitable to adjust benefits such as subsidies that Korean companies have received or are scheduled to receive under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Semiconductor Support Act enacted during the Joe Biden administration.