2024 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor Contenders

Major industry groups, including the Screen Actors Guild, Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts, have released their slates, offering a clear roadmap of which titles hold momentum ahead of the official Oscar nominations announcement.

Best Picture Contenders and the 10-Nominee Dilemma

According to rogerebert.com critic Daniel Joyaux, the Best Picture category features several virtual locks for the expanded ten-film lineup, led by Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, Greta Gerwig’s Barbie, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things, and Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers. Rounding out the upper tier of predicted nominees are Bradley Cooper’s Maestro, Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction, Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall, and Celine Song’s Past Lives.

However, picking the tenth and final slot remains a central challenge for awards forecasters. While Blitz Bazawule’s musical adaptation The Color Purple was widely penciled into the final spot throughout the year, its omission from the Golden Globe nominations for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy created uncertainty among Oscar boards, despite making the Producers Guild top ten.

Precursor Puzzles and Critical Contenders

Jonathan Glazer’s Holocaust drama The Zone of Interest has emerged as a frequent prediction for the final Best Picture slot due to critical acclaim and a Producers Guild nomination, though rogerebert.com notes a historical lack of precedent for such an uncompromising film securing broad Academy support. Other potential contenders, including Todd Haynes’s May December, suffered complete shutouts from both SAG and BAFTA, while European contenders such as Emerald Fennell’s Saltburn, Andrew Haigh’s All of Us Strangers, and Juan Antonio Bayona’s Society of the Snow have struggled to gain traction with American awards voters.