2025 College Football Power Rankings: Sleepers & Overrated Teams
Uncover the potential upsets and surprises of the 2025 collage football season! Our analysis of ESPN’s FPI explores which teams are undervalued and overrated, with Arizona State possibly poised for a playoff run despite key player losses. Clemson, surprisingly ranked No.11, also garners attention, along with Iowa’s potential to exceed expectations. We delve into why Texas A&M might be falling short of its lofty rankings. news Directory 3 provides detailed insights into the factors influencing these projections, from quarterback performances to defensive strengths. Discover what’s next in the evolving landscape of college football?
College Football FPI 2025: Which Teams Are Over- and underrated?
Updated June 03, 2025
ESPN’s 2025 Football Power Index (FPI) projections are generating debate among college football analysts.
The FPI ratings forecast each team’s record, chances of winning their conference, and odds of making the
12-team playoff and winning the national championship. The FPI is a power rating that assesses a team’s
strength relative to the average FBS squad, evaluating offense, defense, and special teams based on points per
game.
Several analysts have weighed in on potential discrepancies in the FPI, highlighting teams that might potentially be
undervalued or overvalued based on their assessment.
Teams That Could Exceed Expectations
Paolo Uggetti suggests that Arizona State might be undervalued at No. 24. Despite losing running back Cam
Skattebo to the NFL draft, the Sun Devils retain quarterback Sam Leavitt, who threw for 2,885 yards and 24
touchdowns last year, wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, and defensive back Xavion Alford. Uggetti believes Arizona
State could make another playoff run.
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Kenny Dillingham: ASU facing a different type of adversity this year
Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham explains the differences his team is
facing this season after coming off a Big 12 title last season.
Mark Schlabach argues that Clemson, ranked No. 11, is among the top teams in the FBS. He notes that quarterback
Cade Klubnik, projected as a first-round NFL draft pick, threw for 3,639 yards with 36 touchdowns last season.
Clemson also boasts the best defensive line in the FBS, making them a strong contender in the ACC.
Bill Connelly identifies Iowa, ranked No. 39, as a team that could outperform its FPI ranking. Despite
defensive changes, Connelly anticipates a strong defense and highlights the addition of south Dakota State’s Mark
Gronowski at quarterback. While the loss of running back Kaleb Johnson is meaningful, Connelly believes Iowa is
a top-25-level team.
Jake trotter suggests Indiana is being underestimated. Despite losing quarterback Kurtis Rourke, the Hoosiers
return key players, including receiver Elijah Sarratt, defensive end Mikail Kamara, linebacker Aiden Fisher, and
cornerback D’Angelo Ponds. The addition of Cal transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza brings experience to
Bloomington. Trotter notes that Indiana’s schedule avoids Ohio State and Michigan, potentially opening the door
for playoff contention.
Teams Facing Potential Overvaluation
Trotter questions the No.8 ranking of Texas A&M, citing the Aggies’ ancient underperformance despite
preseason hype. He notes that Texas A&M has only achieved double-digit wins once this century. While acknowledging
coach Mike elko and quarterback Marcel Reed, Trotter points out that the Aggies ranked 51st in offensive EPA and
47th in defensive EPA last year, hardly indicative of a top-10 team.
Connelly suggests that Texas’s FPI ranking may be contingent on quarterback Arch Manning living up to his hype.
If Manning performs merely “very good” rather than “great,” Connelly believes holes elsewhere on the roster could
prevent the Longhorns from living up to their ranking.
“It would not shock me to see them make another playoff run.”
Paolo Uggetti,ESPN Analyst
What’s next
The 2025 college football season promises intrigue as teams strive to exceed or defy their FPI projections.
Whether Arizona state, Clemson, and Iowa can outperform their rankings, or whether Texas A&M and Texas will
validate their high positions, remains to be seen on the field.