2026 Fantasy Football Busts: Model Reveals Riskiest Draft Picks to Avoid

Malik Nabers Faces Slow Start and Run-Heavy Giants Offense

Recovery timeline concerns contribute to this projection, as Nabers is not a lock to be ready at the start of the season following an ACL tear last season and a follow-up procedure in the spring. Furthermore, the Giants are expected to lean heavily on the run game under offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, dampening the receiver’s early-season upside in the second or early third round.

James Cook Slips in Model Rankings Behind Elite Backs

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook enters draft season with an average draft position around No. 11 overall, making him the fifth running back selected on average. However, SportsLine’s model ranks Cook as the No. 10 running back, slotting him behind players like Derrick Henry and Chase Brown.

The model suggests Cook is better suited for a late-second or third-round selection due to specific roster dynamics. While Cook finished as the RB6 last season following two productive seasons, he fumbled at a higher rate and lacks elite target volume out of the backfield. Additionally, quarterback Josh Allen frequently acts as a touchdown vulture for the Bills, limiting Cook’s ceiling near the goal line.

Model Track Record on Past Sleepers and Busts

Last year, the model accurately predicted that Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin would fall well short of his top-50 ADP. McLaurin subsequently posted career lows in receiving yards (582) and touchdowns (3) amidst a tough season.

Stroud would take a step back in 2024. The model also highlighted past contributors such as Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017.