2026 World Cup Betting Trends: France and Mbappé Lead the Market

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is shaping up to be the most anticipated sporting event in North America’s history, and early betting trends suggest France and Kylian Mbappé are emerging as the tournament’s biggest favorites—both on the pitch and among bookmakers. With just over a month until the opening match between Mexico and South Africa on June 11, 2026, the futures market has already seen unprecedented action, positioning Les Bleus and their star forward as the most heavily backed contenders in the expanded 48-team competition.

According to BetMGM’s World Cup betting insights, France opened at +600 to win the tournament but has since tightened to +450, reflecting a surge in betting volume. The team now commands the highest share of the market, accounting for 19.6% of all winner futures bets and 13.8% of total tickets—just behind Spain, which holds 13.9%. This surge in support follows France’s 2018 World Cup triumph and their status as one of the tournament’s two co-favorites alongside Spain. However, their path to the final may face early challenges, with group-stage opponents including Senegal, Norway, and Iraq.

Mbappé, who won the Golden Boot in 2022 with eight goals and delivered a hat-trick in the final, remains the focal point of France’s campaign. His dominance on the world stage is underscored by his 12 career World Cup goals before turning 28, placing him sixth all-time in men’s tournament history. Despite his recent struggles at Real Madrid and a single goal in the 2024 European Championship, Mbappé’s betting odds reflect his status as the tournament’s most likely top scorer. He is currently priced at +600 for the Golden Boot, commanding a staggering 36.8% of the total handle in that market—a figure that dwarfs his nearest rival, Spanish forward Lamine Yamal, who holds just 13.7% in both tickets and handle.

The betting trends highlight Mbappé’s outsized influence on France’s chances. With 23.5% of all Golden Boot tickets wagered on him, bettors are overwhelmingly betting on his ability to replicate his 2022 form. Yet, the question remains: Can Mbappé and France overcome their recent form slump and deliver on the pitch what the markets are already pricing in?

The 2026 World Cup will feature 104 matches across three host nations—the United States, Canada, and Mexico—marking the first time the tournament has expanded beyond 32 teams. The increased field size, combined with the high-stakes betting activity, suggests this edition could redefine expectations for both teams and individual players. While France and Mbappé lead the betting markets, the tournament’s unpredictability—historically unkind to favorites—means that early form, injuries, and tactical adjustments could quickly reshape the narrative.

For now, the focus remains on France’s preparation for their group-stage opener. If Mbappé can regain his form and Les Bleus navigate their tough early fixtures, they may well reward bettors with another title run. But with Spain, Brazil, and England also in contention, the road to the final in Los Angeles will be far from straightforward.