S&P 500 Second Half Outlook: Historical Trends

Today’s LPL Financial Chart of the Day highlights second-half returns for the following a range of first-half return scenarios. 

The S&P 500 had a volatile but solid first half. After an impressive recovery from a deep correction in April, the broader market wrapped up the first half with a gain of 5.5%. 

The big question now is whether this momentum can continue in the second half. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has followed up a positive first-half return with an average second-half gain of 6.1%. Furthermore, when first-half gains were within the range of 5–10%, the index also posted an average gain of 6.1% in the second half, with 86% of occurrences producing positive results. 

Despite the bullish precedent from a positive first half, bull markets are not linear, and pullbacks should be expected in the second half. The maximum drawdown for the S&P 500 during the second half has averaged -10.3% since 1950. However, second-half drawdowns following a first half of 5–10% or higher average only 8.4%.

Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 07/01/25

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and can’t be invested in directly. The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance back to 1950 incorporates the performance of the predecessor index, the S&P 90.