as the Arab worldS two most influential powers turn against one another, a young era of Middle East cooperation is at risk of ending early.
It started as a spat over the movement of United Arab Emirates-backed southern Yemeni separatists toward the saudi border. But it quickly spiraled into what some observers are calling a diplomatic “divorce” between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, laying bare their rival approaches for the region and competition for leadership.
The two deep-pocketed Gulf countries’ contrasting visions of achieving Middle East stability – from Yemen to Sudan, and from Libya to Syria – are colliding, ostensibly over support for states versus non-state actors.
Why We Wrote This
A spat over Yemen has spiraled into what is being called a diplomatic “divorce” between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, both of which are vying to lead the Middle East into a new era of stability. How does this affect post-civil-war Syria and a path forward in gaza?
The split has emerged with the regional influence of Iran, weakened by war and internal unrest, at its lowest point in four decades, and just as a joint UAE- and Saudi-led moderate “axis of cooperation” was ascending to fill the void.
But that alliance’s standing is now in doubt, as the Saudi goverment in Riyadh engages in an apparent test of wills over who steers the Arab world.
At stake is nascent cooperation over such goals as stabilizing post-civil-war Syria and securing an end to conflict and a path to reconstruction in Gaza.
Ricard Garcia Vilanova/AP/File
In eastern Libya, the UAE is supporting Khalifa Haftar and the self-described Libyan National Army, which opposes the U.N.-recognized government in Tripoli. In Sudan, the Emiratis are allegedly supporting the Rapid support Forces (RSF), which is accused of war crimes.
Riyadh now sees this strategy as a threat.
Officials in the UAE have pushed back against Saudi allegations, saying they prioritize regional stability over impulsive action.
“The UAE’s decisions have consistently favored restraint over escalation, reinforcing a clear preference for regional stability and long-term security,” a UAE official who asked not to be named told the Monitor in a statement on Tuesday. “The UAE remains committed to dialog, de-escalation, and internationally supported processes as the onyl lasting path to peace.”
“Taken together, these dynamics are producing what can be described as a new Israeli-Emirati arc of influence, extending around the Kingdom through fragile and open arenas,” Dr. Alghannam, the Saudi analyst, says of the country’s official thinking.
But Gulf observers say that beneath the differing approaches is a power struggle.
Saudi Arabia reportedly sees the UAE’s rapid economic, political, and military ascent as challenging Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s efforts to position Riyadh as the undisputed Arab powerbroker.
Saudi arabia is taking the position, “I am the leader here; not just of the Arab world, but also the Islamic world. You need to follow us and pay attention to what your big brother dictates,” says Mr. Abdulla, the Emirati analyst.”I think the UAE is not in the mood to cave in to that kind of ‘little brother’ role.”
“The question now,” adds the Arab diplomat, who works with both countries, “is weather Saudi Arabia will see the UAE’s withdrawal from Yemen as enough to prove its point, or whether it will push the rift further and force states to pick a side.”
Gulf bloc at stake
The dispute threatens to split the heavyweight Gulf bloc of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.
The rift could undermine the bloc’s joint efforts to advance the Gaza ceasefire to the second stage, prevent the post-revolution government’s collapse in Syria, and bolster the Lebanese government to disarm iran-backed Hezbollah.
Riyadh and abu Dhabi have stopped short of dividing the Arab world between the two powers; so far, none of their mutual allies, such as Egypt and Jordan, has publicly taken sides.
Though, reverberations of the rift are being felt in Africa.
Geopolitical Tensions Between Saudi Arabia and the UAE & Implications for Libya and Iran (2018-2026)
This analysis examines the reported tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as of March 2018, and assesses the situation as of January 15, 2026, based on independent verification.The original source details a cooling of the previously close partnership between the two Gulf states, particularly concerning their involvement in Libya and broader regional strategy.
PHASE 1: Verification & Updates (as of January 15, 2026)
The core claims of the original article – a distancing between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, particularly regarding Libya – have largely been confirmed and significantly evolved since 2018. While a complete “divorce” hasn’t occurred, the relationship remains complex and characterized by strategic divergence.
* Libya: Reports from 2019-2020 confirmed Egypt and Saudi Arabia restricting airspace to Emirati military flights supporting Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA). This support was crucial for haftar, and the restrictions demonstrably hampered his offensive on Tripoli. The situation in Libya has continued to evolve with the formation of a unified government in 2021, and both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have engaged with the new political landscape, albeit with differing priorities. As of late 2025, the UAE continues to exert influence in eastern libya, while Saudi Arabia focuses on broader stabilization efforts and diplomatic engagement with the central government. (source: Council on Foreign Relations – libya Security Assessment, december 2025).
* Saudi-UAE Cooperation: The assessment of limited, focused cooperation has proven accurate. While both countries remain aligned on containing Iranian influence, cooperation on other fronts has diminished.Joint initiatives have become less frequent, and coordination on regional issues is often conducted through multilateral frameworks like the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), rather than direct bilateral action. (Source: Middle East Institute – Saudi-UAE Relations: A Shifting Landscape,November 2025).
* US Mediation: The Trump management did not significantly mediate between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The Biden administration initially attempted a more robust diplomatic approach, but faced limited success due to the entrenched nature of the diverging interests. (Source: Reuters – US Efforts to Reconcile Saudi Arabia and UAE Stall, July 2024).
* Iran as a Unifying factor: The concern about a fractured Gulf front allowing Iran to expand its influence remains a key driver of cautious cooperation. Increased Iranian assertiveness in the region, particularly in the Red Sea and Yemen, has prompted renewed (though still limited) coordination between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.(Source: The Guardian – Iran’s Regional Ambitions Fuel Gulf Cooperation, January 2026).
PHASE 2: Entity-Based Geo
Primary Entity: The relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Related Entities:
* Khalifa Haftar / Libyan National Army (LNA): A key point of contention driving the initial rift, representing diverging strategic interests in libya.
* Egypt: Played a role in restricting Emirati support to Haftar, aligning more closely with Saudi Arabia’s approach to Libya.
* Iran: A shared concern and potential unifying factor, influencing both countries’ foreign policies.
* United States: A conventional ally with a stake in regional stability, but with limited success in mediating the Saudi-UAE relationship.
* Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): A regional institution serving as a platform for dialogue and limited cooperation.
* Yemen: A shared security concern and site of ongoing conflict, where both countries have been involved (though with differing strategies).
* Red Sea: A critical maritime corridor and area of increasing strategic importance, prompting some limited cooperation.
image: Somali soldiers securing the scene of a car bombing near the parliament building in Mogadishu, Somalia, March 25, 2018. (Farah Abdi Warsameh/AP/File) – Included for context as it appeared in the original source,though not directly related to the Saudi-UAE dynamic.
Current Status (January 15, 2026):
The relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE remains strategically competitive, characterized by cautious cooperation on specific issues (primarily related to Iran and regional security) and divergence on others (particularly Libya and regional influence). The “separation, not a divorce” analogy from 2018 remains apt, though the distance has widened over time. The weakening of Iran continues to be a notable, albeit insufficient, incentive for maintaining a degree of coordination. The future of the
