Satellite Mega-Constellations Face Collision Risks
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Modern satellite networks, while offering increased connectivity, are built on a potentially unstable foundation due to the frequency of close encounters between satellites, according to research published in January 2026.
The “House of Cards” Analogy
The term “House of Cards” originally described a structure prone to collapse,and researchers now apply this analogy to the current state of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite mega-constellations. A pre-print paper by Sarah Thiele, formerly of the University of British Columbia and currently at Princeton, and her colleagues details the inherent instability of these networks.
Frequency of Close Approaches
Satellites in LEO mega-constellations experience frequent close approaches, defined as coming within 1 kilometer of each other. Across all LEO mega-constellations, a close approach occurs approximately every 22 seconds. Within the Starlink network specifically, these events happen roughly every 11 minutes.
Example: As of January 2026, Starlink satellites require an average of 41 course corrections per year to avoid collisions.This data is based on observations and projections from the aforementioned research paper.
Collision Avoidance Maneuvers
The high frequency of close approaches necessitates constant course corrections to prevent collisions. These maneuvers consume fuel, reduce satellite lifespan, and introduce potential risks of their own. The increasing number of satellites in orbit exacerbates this issue, creating a cascading effect where more satellites mean more potential collisions and more frequent maneuvers.
- Starlink: spacex’s satellite internet constellation, representing a significant portion of LEO satellites.
- University of British Columbia: The institution where initial research on this topic was conducted.
- Princeton University: Current research affiliation of Sarah Thiele.
- arXiv: A repository for pre-print scientific papers, where the research was initially published.
