After a quarter-century of largely stagnant returns, GlaxoSmithKline’s (GSK) share price has returned to its level at the time of its 2000 merger with SmithKline Beecham, briefly surpassing £20 on . This modest milestone, however, belies a complex history of underperformance and unrealized ambitions, and now rests on the shoulders of new chief executive Luke Miels to deliver on ambitious revenue targets.
The initial vision following the merger was to create a pharmaceutical powerhouse rivaling the scale and innovation of companies like Microsoft, but early returns were disappointing. The share price halved within a decade as expiring patents and internal challenges hampered growth. GSK struggled to match the success of AstraZeneca, which emerged as a leader in science-led pharmaceutical innovation.
Emma Walmsley, who served as chief executive from 2017 until the end of last year, is credited with initiating crucial changes. She oversaw the demerger of the consumer health division as Haleon in 2022, resolving a long-standing debate about the company’s structure. Recognizing the need to prioritize research and development, Walmsley also reduced the dividend to free up capital for investment in the pharmaceutical and vaccine pipeline.
Despite facing setbacks, including US litigation related to a heartburn drug from the 1990s, Walmsley set a bold target for GSK: revenues exceeding £40 billion by 2031. This target, initially viewed with skepticism by analysts, has now been reaffirmed by her successor, Luke Miels.
Miels’s first major financial results presentation, covering 2025, was closely watched to determine whether he would maintain confidence in the £40 billion revenue goal. He not only upheld the target but also echoed the style of his former mentor at AstraZeneca, Sir Pascal Soriot, emphasizing “scientific courage” and agile decision-making.
The consensus analyst estimate for GSK’s 2031 revenue currently stands at £35 billion, lower than the company’s £40 billion projection. GSK’s most recent full-year revenue figures, reported for 2024, were £31 billion. The £40 billion target hinges on the successful development and commercialization of 15 potential blockbuster products currently in the pipeline.
GSK shares experienced a significant increase of 9.16% in the fourth quarter of 2025, preceding Miels’s first earnings report as CEO. This positive momentum suggests growing investor confidence in the company’s direction. The reaffirmation of the £40 billion target, coupled with Miels’s emphasis on innovation and strategic agility, appears to have resonated with the market.
However, the legacy of past disappointments casts a long shadow. Investors remain wary of overpromising, and the loss of patent exclusivity for dolutegravir, a key HIV drug, poses a significant challenge to achieving the ambitious revenue target. The success of GSK’s future performance will depend on its ability to navigate these challenges and deliver on its pipeline of new medicines and vaccines.
Miels’s commitment to the £40 billion target signals a continuation of Walmsley’s strategy, but his emphasis on “scientific courage” and market responsiveness suggests a potential shift in execution. Whether this new approach will be sufficient to overcome GSK’s historical challenges and unlock its full potential remains to be seen. The pharmaceutical industry is a long-term game, and the true test of Miels’s leadership will unfold over the coming years.
