BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), IBIT, experienced a surge in trading volume on Thursday, , reaching a record $10 billion, even as the price of Bitcoin itself plummeted. The dramatic increase in activity, representing over 284 million shares traded according to Nasdaq data, occurred alongside a 13% drop in IBIT’s price to under $35 – its lowest level since .
The record volume, 169% higher than the previous peak of 169.21 million shares on , suggests a potential capitulation event, where long-term holders liquidate their positions amidst falling prices. This pattern often signals the peak of selling pressure in a bear market, potentially paving the way for a bottoming process, though the duration of such a phase remains uncertain.
The increased trading activity wasn’t solely driven by selling. IBIT processed $175.33 million in redemptions on Thursday, contributing to a cumulative net outflow of $434.11 million across 11 funds, according to data from SoSoValue. This indicates investors are actively exiting their positions in Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting broader market anxieties.
Bitcoin’s decline, falling 12% in the past 24 hours to $64,000 and briefly touching $60,300, has significantly impacted IBIT’s performance. The cryptocurrency has lost approximately 50% of its value since reaching an all-time high of around $126,000 in early . IBIT has mirrored this trend, dropping roughly 48% from a peak of almost $70 in early October to $36.10 at Thursday’s close.
The situation is further underscored by shifts in options trading. Data from MarketChameleon reveals a record premium of over 25 volatility points between put options (bets on price declines) and call options (bets on price increases). This pronounced tilt towards put options indicates heightened fear and a bearish sentiment among investors.
IBIT, as the world’s largest publicly listed Bitcoin fund, holds physical Bitcoin and aims to track the spot price of the cryptocurrency. Its launch was intended to provide institutional investors with a regulated avenue for gaining exposure to the digital asset. However, the recent market downturn has put the average dollar invested in IBIT underwater, according to Bob Elliott, investment chief at Unlimited Funds.
The ETF has struggled to maintain consistent inflows since a crypto market correction began in early , having only experienced 10 days of net inflows so far in . Wednesday saw net outflows totaling $373.4 million, further illustrating the current trend.
The confluence of record trading volume, significant price declines, substantial redemptions, and a strong preference for put options paints a picture of intense selling pressure and investor capitulation. While such conditions can signal a potential market bottom, the duration and severity of bear markets are notoriously difficult to predict. The current situation highlights the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market and the risks associated with investing in digital assets, even through regulated investment vehicles like ETFs.
The record volume in IBIT, despite the price drop, could also be interpreted as a sign of increased institutional participation, with some investors potentially viewing the lower prices as an opportunity to enter the market. However, the overwhelming evidence suggests that the primary driver of Thursday’s activity was liquidation and risk aversion.
