The final bilateral treaty limiting United States and Russian strategic nuclear weapons expired on , ending decades of arms control agreements between the two nations possessing the world’s largest nuclear arsenals. The expiration of the New START treaty marks the first time in more than half a century that the U.S. And Russia are not bound by formal limits on their nuclear deployments.
Signed in , New START capped the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 per side and included provisions for on-site inspections to verify compliance. Russia suspended participation in those inspections and ceased providing notifications regarding its nuclear forces following the invasion of Ukraine, though the U.S. State Department recently reported that Russia is not believed to have significantly exceeded the treaty’s limits.
The treaty’s extension beyond its original expiration date in was secured by former U.S. President Joe Biden. However, the current U.S. Administration, under President Donald Trump, allowed the treaty to lapse, with Trump stating in that “if it expires, it expires.” A White House official indicated that the President will outline a path forward on nuclear arms control “on his own timeline,” while also expressing a desire to maintain limits on nuclear weapons and potentially involve China in future negotiations.
The absence of a formal agreement raises concerns about a potential new nuclear arms race. Experts suggest that without constraints, both the U.S. And Russia could significantly increase their nuclear stockpiles, leading to heightened instability and a diminished sense of security globally. The expiration also removes a key mechanism for transparency and communication between the two powers, increasing the risk of miscalculation and escalation.
A significant complicating factor is the rapidly growing nuclear arsenal of China. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on that any future agreement would be “impossible” without China’s participation, citing projections that Beijing will possess over 1,000 nuclear weapons by , a substantial increase from the approximately 200 it had in . However, China has so far resisted calls to join nuclear arms control talks, arguing that its nuclear forces are not comparable in scale to those of the U.S. And Russia. Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian stated that China will not participate in nuclear disarmament negotiations “at the current stage.”
The situation presents a complex challenge for international diplomacy. While the U.S. Administration has signaled a willingness to pursue arms control, the conditions for a successful negotiation remain uncertain. Russia is reportedly seeking the inclusion of the United Kingdom and France in any future talks, demanding that they also be subject to limitations on their nuclear arsenals. This demand adds another layer of complexity to the already difficult process.
The expiration of New START is not simply a bilateral issue between the U.S. And Russia. It has broader implications for global security and the international non-proliferation regime. The Chatham House think tank noted that the treaty’s disappearance without a replacement would signal that nuclear powers are abandoning restraint, potentially encouraging other nations to develop or expand their own nuclear capabilities.
The lack of a treaty also raises questions about the future of on-site inspections, a crucial element of arms control verification. Without inspections, it becomes more difficult to assess the size and composition of nuclear arsenals, increasing the risk of mistrust and miscalculation. The absence of transparency could also fuel further escalation and undermine efforts to reduce nuclear risks.
While President Trump has indicated a desire to negotiate a new arms control agreement, the path forward remains unclear. The inclusion of China, the differing positions of Russia and the West and the broader geopolitical context all pose significant obstacles. The coming months will be critical in determining whether the expiration of New START will lead to a renewed commitment to arms control or a dangerous slide towards a new nuclear arms race.
The Netherlands, like other nations, is assessing the implications of the treaty’s expiration. The lack of limits on U.S. And Russian nuclear weapons is expected to be a topic of discussion within NATO and the European Union, as member states consider their own security postures and potential responses.
The possibility of a new agreement remains, but its prospects appear increasingly uncertain. The current geopolitical climate, characterized by heightened tensions and mistrust, makes it more difficult to achieve the kind of cooperation necessary for successful arms control negotiations. The world now enters a period of heightened nuclear risk, with no formal constraints on the two largest nuclear powers.
