Telenor Shares Surge as Billion-Kroner Payout Announced Despite Customer Loss

Oslo, Norway – February 6, 2026 – Telenor shares surged over 7 percent today following the release of strong fourth-quarter earnings and a substantial capital return plan for shareholders. The Norwegian telecommunications giant announced it will distribute 28 billion (approximately $2.6 billion) through dividends and share buybacks, with the potential for further distributions dependent on the absence of significant acquisitions in the Nordic region.

The positive market reaction reflects investor confidence in Telenor’s financial performance and strategic direction. While the company reported a net loss of 761 million for the full year 2025, impacted by a 3.044 billion loss recognized from an unspecified source, the Q4 results themselves demonstrated underlying strength. The company reported earnings before interest and taxes of 8.6 billion in Q4.

Customer Churn Offset by Increased Revenue Per User

Despite a loss of approximately 17,000 mobile subscribers over the past three months, Telenor reported a 2.9 percent increase in revenue from mobile services. This apparent paradox is explained by a deliberate strategy of increasing prices through a “more-for-more” approach, resulting in a 5 percent increase in average revenue per user (ARPU). The company now has 56,000 fewer mobile customers than a year ago, a figure comparable to the population of cities like Tønsberg or Ålesund.

The success of this strategy highlights a willingness to prioritize revenue generation over subscriber numbers, a move that has drawn criticism from consumer advocacy groups. Telenor’s Q3 2025 adjusted EBITDA reached 9.5 billion, a 5.4 percent year-over-year increase, driven by 8 percent growth in Nordic EBITDA. Free cash flow before mergers and acquisitions rose 50 percent to 4.2 billion.

Nordic Pricing Power

The company’s financial results reveal a significant disparity in ARPU between Norway and other Nordic markets. Norwegian mobile customers pay an average of 426 per month, a 4.5 percent increase year-over-year, compared to 191 in Sweden (a 1.9 percent increase) and 125 in Denmark (a 1.8 percent increase). This gap is widening, with Sweden experiencing consistent customer growth while Norway continues to see subscriber attrition.

Telenor attributes the higher ARPU in Norway to the inclusion of value-added services, such as fraud call alerts (Nummervarsel) and the superior quality of its mobile network. Birgitte Engebretsen, Telenor Norge’s director, argues that a comparison of ARPU as a percentage of household income reveals a more nuanced picture, suggesting that Norwegian customers can afford to pay more. However, this claim has not been independently verified.

Consumer Concerns and Market Dynamics

Thomas Iversen, a consumer affairs specialist at the Norwegian Consumer Council, expressed concern over Telenor’s pricing strategy. “A portion of the customer base has responded to price increases by switching providers,” Iversen stated. “Instead of focusing on attracting new customers or retaining existing ones, Telenor has effectively offset customer losses with higher prices.”

Iversen emphasized the importance of active consumer engagement in the market, noting the challenges of continuously monitoring and optimizing mobile subscriptions. He advised consumers to review their contracts annually and whenever they receive notice of a price increase, as changes can take various forms, including higher monthly fees or reduced service levels.

The Norwegian mobile market is characterized by intense competition, with aggressive promotional campaigns on both subscriptions and handsets. Telenor acknowledges the challenges of maintaining customer numbers in this environment but remains committed to demonstrating the added value of its services.

Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations

Management reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, anticipating EBITDA growth of 5–6 percent and free cash flow of 13 billion. The potential for further capital returns to shareholders hinges on the absence of major acquisitions in the Nordic region. The company’s Q3 2025 net income attributable to equity holders was 3 billion, with an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 1.85.

Telenor’s strategy of prioritizing ARPU over subscriber growth represents a calculated risk. While the approach has yielded positive financial results in the short term, it remains to be seen whether the company can sustain this momentum in the face of increasing competition and evolving consumer preferences. The company’s ability to balance profitability with customer satisfaction will be crucial to its long-term success.