Investors and policymakers are bracing for a concentrated period of US economic data releases this week, with the January jobs report and the consumer price index (CPI) taking center stage. The unusual proximity of these two key indicators – a result of prior government shutdowns – will provide a more immediate and comprehensive view of the nation’s economic health than typically observed.
The January employment report, due Wednesday, will be particularly noteworthy due to the inclusion of an annual revision to the jobs count. This benchmark update is anticipated to reveal a downward adjustment to payroll growth through March 2025, offering a more accurate picture of the labor market’s performance over the past year.
Economists currently forecast a payroll increase of 69,000 jobs in January, which would represent the strongest gain in four months and offer some reassurance amid concerns of a slowing labor market. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.4%, near a four-year high.
Friday’s CPI release will be closely scrutinized for further evidence of a cooling inflationary trend. Previous reports were complicated by the extended government shutdown last year, but forecasters anticipate that the core inflation rate – excluding food and energy costs – will rise at its slowest annual pace since early 2021.
The Federal Reserve opted to hold interest rates steady in January, citing signs of stabilization in the labor market and persistent, though elevated, inflation. Federal Reserve Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran, who previously dissented in favor of a rate cut, are scheduled to speak in the coming week, potentially offering further insight into the central bank’s thinking.
Beyond Employment and Inflation
Tuesday will bring government figures projecting solid retail sales in December. Despite anxieties surrounding the cost of living and job market uncertainty, household spending has demonstrated resilience, a trend economists expect to continue in the near term as annual tax refunds become available.
However, the housing market continues to face affordability challenges. Data from the National Association of Realtors, scheduled for release on Thursday, is expected to show a decline in sales of previously owned homes in January.
Global Economic Calendar
Looking beyond the US, the Bank of Canada’s summary of deliberations will provide insight into its decision to maintain steady interest rates for a second consecutive meeting, while acknowledging the heightened uncertainty surrounding future policy moves. Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will address the impact of artificial intelligence on the economy on Thursday.
Japan’s recent election will be followed by a series of data releases on Monday, including cash earnings, real wage data, balance-of-payments figures, and machinery orders, offering a comprehensive assessment of the nation’s economic activity.
Australia will see the release of domestic demand indicators on Tuesday, including household spending for December and consumer confidence readings, following the Reserve Bank’s recent hawkish shift. South Korea will publish January unemployment data on Wednesday.
In Southeast Asia, Malaysia will release its fourth-quarter GDP figures on Friday, alongside current-account data, providing insights into domestic demand. India’s January inflation report, also due on Thursday, will be a key test for the Reserve Bank of India as it considers the potential for easing monetary policy later in the year, with food prices remaining a critical factor.
Europe, Middle East, and Africa
In Europe, the Bank of England’s recent close vote against a rate cut – and Governor Andrew Bailey’s suggestion of a 50% chance of a March move – will be followed by economic data releases this week. Analysts predict a slight acceleration in fourth-quarter growth to 0.2%. Key policymakers, including Bailey and Catherine Mann, are scheduled to speak, offering further clarity on the central bank’s outlook.
The European Central Bank’s decision to hold borrowing costs unchanged will be followed by President Christine Lagarde’s appearance before the European Parliament on Monday, among other policy maker addresses. Data on trade and a second reading of GDP are slated for release on Friday.
Switzerland’s inflation number on Friday is expected to be just 0.1%, at the lower end of the Swiss National Bank’s target range, with some forecasts even predicting a return to zero price growth. Norway and Denmark will also release inflation numbers on Tuesday, following Norway’s GDP reading the previous day.
Several central bank decisions are anticipated across Africa: Uganda and Mauritius are expected to hold rates steady on Monday and Wednesday, respectively, while Kenya and Zambia are likely to reduce borrowing costs on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Latin America and Asia
Mexico will release mid- and full-month consumer price reports on Monday, following the central bank’s decision to pause rate hikes at 7%. Brazil will also post its January inflation report, which is likely to show an uptick after ending 2025 within the central bank’s target range.
Argentina’s inflation ended 2025 on an upward trajectory, with annual and monthly readings increasing in November and December. Economy Minister Luis Caputo anticipates a January monthly result near December’s 2.8%, implying a year-on-year figure of 32.2%.
Peru’s central bank board meets Thursday, with a hold at 4.25% nearly certain given the country’s economic conditions and below-target inflation.
In Asia, China will set the tone early with January credit data, including new yuan loans, aggregate financing, and money supply figures. Investors will be looking for evidence that easing policy is translating into stronger economic momentum. Inflation readings later in the week, including producer and consumer prices, will help determine whether deflationary pressures are easing or intensifying.
