The war in Ukraine continues to grind on, with Russia making incremental territorial gains in the east while simultaneously intensifying its aerial bombardment of cities across the country. As the conflict approaches its fourth anniversary, the situation on the ground remains fluid and deeply concerning, marked by a relentless Russian push in the Donbas region and a sustained Ukrainian effort to defend its territory and strike back at Russian logistics and infrastructure.
According to analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces have seized approximately 4,700 square kilometers (1,800 square miles) of territory in 2025. This figure, while contested by Russia which claims to have taken 6,000 square kilometers, represents a significant, albeit slow, expansion of Russian control, roughly equivalent to twice the size of Moscow. The gains have been concentrated in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions – collectively known as the Donbas – where Russian forces are systematically encircling and overwhelming Ukrainian-held towns and villages.
Russia’s strategic objective remains the full control of the Donbas, encompassing Luhansk, Donetsk, and extending westward to include Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. These regions were the subject of internationally condemned referendums following the initial invasion, intended to legitimize annexation. However, Moscow has never fully controlled these territories, and the current offensive aims to rectify that. A US-backed peace plan proposed in November suggests a potential, though highly contentious, resolution: Ukraine would cede control of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea, along with Russian-occupied areas of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, to Moscow. Ukrainian forces would be required to withdraw from remaining positions in Donetsk, establishing a demilitarized zone under de facto Russian control. Russian forces, in turn, would withdraw from the limited areas of Ukraine they currently occupy outside of these designated regions.
The intensity of the fighting has recently focused on the area around Pokrovsk, where Russia launched a large-scale mechanized offensive. Reports indicate this offensive has not progressed as planned for Russian forces. Further south, near Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region, Ukrainian forces are actively employing self-propelled howitzers, such as the Bohdana, in an attempt to counter Russian advances. The Ukrainian military is also leveraging its experience in combat, particularly in areas like Konstantinovka, to adapt to the evolving battlefield dynamics.
Beyond the eastern front, Ukraine continues to demonstrate its capacity for asymmetric warfare. In August 2024, Ukrainian forces conducted a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, though they subsequently lost territory and were largely pushed back. More recently, Ukraine has maintained a consistent campaign of drone attacks targeting Russian oil infrastructure and military sites, aiming to disrupt logistical networks and degrade Russia’s war-making capabilities.
The human cost of the conflict remains staggering. Nearly four years since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, Russia occupies roughly 20 percent of Ukraine. Over 53,000 civilian casualties have been recorded, and millions have been displaced. As of late 2025, 3.7 million people are internally displaced within Ukraine, while another 6.9 million have fled the country as refugees. An estimated 12.7 million people are currently in need of humanitarian assistance.
International support for Ukraine remains substantial, with approximately $175 billion in aid provided by the United States and $197 billion from the European Union since January 2022. This aid has been crucial in enabling Ukraine to sustain its defense and maintain essential services. However, the long-term sustainability of this support, particularly in the face of competing global priorities, remains a key concern.
The situation is further complicated by the ongoing Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, which continues to be a frequent target of air strikes. This indiscriminate targeting of civilian areas underscores the brutality of the conflict and the challenges facing Ukraine in protecting its population. The war has evolved into a protracted struggle characterized by incremental gains, intense artillery duels, and a relentless cycle of attack and counterattack. The outcome remains uncertain, but the conflict’s impact on Ukraine, Russia, and the broader geopolitical landscape is already profound and far-reaching.
The conflict’s trajectory will likely depend on a number of factors, including the continued flow of Western aid to Ukraine, Russia’s ability to mobilize and deploy resources, and the potential for diplomatic breakthroughs. While a negotiated settlement remains elusive, the US-backed peace plan, despite its controversial elements, offers a potential framework for de-escalation, albeit one that would require significant concessions from Ukraine. For now, however, the fighting continues, and the prospect of a swift resolution appears increasingly remote.
