Abu Dhabi, UAE – As the United States brokers a second round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi, a debate is intensifying within Europe regarding the potential appointment of a special envoy to the negotiations. While the talks, which began on Wednesday , aim to find a path towards ending the nearly four-year-old conflict, European unity on the best course of action remains elusive, hampered by a lack of clarity over what a special representative could realistically achieve.
The discussion, fueled by proposals from French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, centers on whether Europe seeks a prominent seat at the negotiating table alongside the US, Russia and Ukraine, or a renewed channel for direct dialogue with Moscow. A critical, and largely unaddressed, question is whether the envoy’s mandate would be to push Russia towards a genuine peace, or to pressure Ukraine into making concessions deemed unsustainable by Kyiv.
According to analysts, a significant obstacle is the perceived lack of appetite from both Russia and the United States for increased European involvement. This raises concerns about the credibility of any European initiative and whether it would be taken seriously by the key players.
The core issue, as highlighted by sources familiar with the negotiations, is Russia’s continued insistence on unacceptable demands, particularly complete control over the Donbas region. Moscow’s position, which Kyiv rejects outright, effectively renders genuine peace negotiations difficult. Ukraine, while reportedly willing to consider a ceasefire along the current frontline – acknowledging continued Russian occupation of parts of its territory – has firmly ruled out ceding further land not currently held by Russian forces. Any Ukrainian leader agreeing to such a concession would face insurmountable domestic opposition.
Both the Russians and Americans might become more open to European participation if Europe were to pressure Ukraine to make further concessions.
The possibility of Europe leveraging its influence to encourage further concessions from Ukraine has been floated, but remains a contentious point. While some European factions support this approach, the prevailing view is that such a move could lead to an unstable agreement, potentially paving the way for renewed Russian aggression or a wider continental conflict. The concern is that Europe could be pressured into legitimizing a “bad deal” that ultimately fails to secure lasting peace.
The individuals proposed as potential special envoys – former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi – are all highly respected former heads of state. However, their stature may be ill-suited to the current stage of negotiations. Analysts suggest their experience is better aligned with re-establishing high-level bilateral dialogue between Russia and Europe, a goal that, at this juncture, could be interpreted by the Kremlin as a sign of weakness and embolden its maximalist demands.
The debate also underscores a broader question about Europe’s understanding of its own leverage in influencing Russia. Sources indicate that Moscow is not currently under sufficient pressure to genuinely seek a resolution to the conflict. Europe’s focus, should remain on strengthening existing pressure through measures such as the 20th package of EU sanctions, targeting Russia’s shadow fleet, financial institutions, and trade networks. Simultaneously, continued support for Ukraine’s military capabilities is crucial to deter further Russian advances and demonstrate to the Kremlin that continued aggression will not yield favorable outcomes.
The US-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi follow a first round of trilateral discussions held in January. According to a White House official, those initial talks were “productive,” although both Moscow and Kyiv described them as constructive while acknowledging significant disagreements remain. The current round is scheduled to continue through Thursday .
Recent events on the ground underscore the challenges facing the negotiations. On Tuesday , at least two people were killed in Zaporizhzhia as a result of a Russian strike, while the Black Sea port city of Odesa was also targeted overnight, damaging civilian infrastructure. These attacks, coupled with ongoing strikes on energy facilities, including the Darnytsia Thermal Power Plant in Kyiv, as reported on , cast a shadow over the diplomatic efforts.
The situation is further complicated by the unresolved issue of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, currently occupied by Russian forces since March 2022. Control of the plant remains a key point of contention, as does the question of long-term Western security guarantees for Ukraine, a demand that Russia has consistently rejected, particularly regarding the potential deployment of NATO troops post-war.
In light of the internal divisions and the challenging geopolitical landscape, the European debate over a special representative highlights a fundamental question: whether the continent has truly developed into a cohesive and effective strategic actor. The current uncertainty suggests that Europe’s role in shaping the outcome of the conflict remains, at best, ambiguous.
Views expressed in ICDS publications are those of the author(s).
