Russian forces are sustaining significant personnel losses in Ukraine, exceeding recruitment rates, according to Ukrainian military assessments. The data, released by Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, indicates a potential strain on Russia’s ability to maintain its offensive capabilities.
Syrskyi reported that Russian losses in January totaled 31,700 soldiers – a figure 9,000 higher than the number of newly mobilized troops during the same period. He stated the trend “must be continued and strengthened.” This suggests Ukraine is inflicting casualties at a rate that outpaces Russia’s ability to replenish its ranks, potentially impacting its long-term operational effectiveness.
The Ukrainian military has been actively targeting Russian logistics and command structures, utilizing both air strikes and drone operations. Ukrainian air forces conducted 80 aviation strikes, while drones carried out over 300,000 specialized missions. These efforts have reportedly reduced Russia’s use of aerial bombs by 5 percent, disrupting their offensive capabilities.
Despite facing ammunition shortages, Ukrainian air defense systems intercepted 21,700 Russian aerial targets in January, including 21,600 drones of various types. This highlights the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses, even under challenging conditions, and the increasing reliance of Russian forces on drone technology.
Syrskyi emphasized that Ukrainian forces are holding the front lines and weakening the Russian army, despite Russia’s numerical advantage. He noted a significant shift in the nature of warfare since the summer of 2025, with drones now accounting for approximately 60 percent of all strikes. This underscores the growing importance of unmanned systems in modern combat and Ukraine’s ability to leverage this technology.
The reported losses come amid a broader context of ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine, particularly in the Donetsk region. , President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces were inflicting heavy losses on Russian troops in a counteroffensive in the Donetsk region, a key theater of the war for over three and a half years. This account contrasted with claims from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who asserted that Moscow’s forces held the strategic initiative across all front lines.
Zelenskyy specifically highlighted the Dobropillia operation as a focal point of the counteroffensive, noting heavy casualties in the area. Dobropillia, located north of the logistics hub of Pokrovsk, is a key target in Russia’s westward advance through the Donetsk region. Ukrainian forces are also engaged in defensive operations around Kupiansk, a heavily contested town in northeastern Ukraine, and Novopavlivka in the Zaporizhzhia region, where conditions are described as “difficult” but “active defensive actions” are yielding positive results.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in that Ukrainian forces destroyed or damaged over 3,000 Russian tanks and nearly 9,000 armored vehicles in 2024. Specifically, the data indicated 3,689 tanks, 8,956 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), 13,050 artillery systems, and 407 air defense systems were destroyed or damaged. These figures suggest a substantial depletion of Russia’s military hardware, raising questions about its sustainability in the medium term.
Russia has made incremental territorial gains in 2025, reportedly capturing approximately 4,700 square kilometers (1,800 square miles) of territory, according to the ISW. Russia claims to have taken 6,000 square kilometers. These gains have been concentrated in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as Russia attempts to gain full control of the Donbas region, as well as Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Despite attempts to annex these regions through referendums, Russia has not achieved full control.
The conflict is unfolding against the backdrop of potential diplomatic solutions. A US-backed peace plan, unveiled in November, proposes that Ukraine cede control of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea, along with occupied areas of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, to Moscow. Ukrainian forces would withdraw from remaining parts of Donetsk, which would become a demilitarized zone under de facto Russian control. Russian forces would withdraw from other occupied areas of Ukraine. The viability of this plan remains uncertain.
The sustained losses reported by Ukraine, coupled with the depletion of military hardware, raise concerns about Russia’s long-term capacity to sustain its offensive operations in Ukraine. While Russia continues to hold territory and exert pressure on Ukrainian forces, the increasing cost of the conflict, both in terms of personnel and equipment, presents a significant challenge to its military strategy.
