, Bangladesh will hold general elections, its first since a student-led uprising in led to the ousting of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The polls, accompanied by a national referendum on constitutional reforms, are poised to reshape the South Asian nation’s governance, regional standing and economic trajectory.
With a registered electorate of 127.7 million, including nearly 56 million voters aged between 18 and 37 – and almost 5 million first-time voters – the election represents a significant demographic shift in Bangladesh’s political landscape. Polling will take place across 42,761 centers nationwide.
The political upheaval of , which saw the resignation of Hasina and the formation of an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, has fundamentally altered the country’s political dynamics. The Awami League, which had governed for fifteen years, has been banned from participating in the election, raising questions about the legitimacy of the process.
A Nation in Turmoil
The events of were characterized by widespread protests, met with a forceful crackdown by authorities that resulted in 1,400 deaths. Hasina herself has alleged that the uprising was instigated by external forces as a “foreign-funded, meticulously planned regime change operation.” The interim government, while pledging institutional reform and credible elections, has faced criticism for failing to deliver on its promises.
Economically, Bangladesh is facing headwinds. GDP growth is projected to fall to 3.7% in fiscal year , down from 4.2% the previous year. Consumer inflation remains high, exceeding 8.5%. The country’s crucial garment export sector has also experienced a decline, with shipments falling 2.63% in the first half of fiscal year , including a sharp 14.25% year-on-year drop in .
Political instability and reported attacks on religious minorities have further complicated the situation. The country’s Hindu community, comprising nearly 8% of the population, has expressed concerns about their safety and security.
The Political Landscape
The ban on the Awami League has created a fragmented political arena, with several key formations vying for power.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has emerged as a leading contender. Led by Tarique Rahman, the son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, the BNP aims to restore electoral legitimacy and reverse the policies of the previous government. Rahman recently returned to Bangladesh after 17 years in exile in the UK.
Another significant player is Jamaat-e-Islami, Bangladesh’s largest Islamist party, which was previously banned. Led by Shafiqur Rahman, the party is seeking to capitalize on its conservative base. However, its historical opposition to Bangladesh’s independence in and its perceived ties to Pakistan remain contentious issues.
The National Citizen Party (NCP), formed from the leadership of the anti-Hasina movement, is allied with Jamaat-e-Islami. The NCP’s stated goals include “governance without corruption” and national unity.
Other parties contesting the election include the Islami Andolan Bangladesh and the Jatiya Party.
The absence of the Awami League from the election has raised concerns internationally, echoing criticisms of previous polls in and that were deemed neither free nor fair.
Neighborhood Equations
Bangladesh’s strategic location in South Asia, bordering India and China and overlooking the Indian Ocean, makes it a country of significant interest to major global powers.
Hasina previously alleged that she could have remained in power had she not resisted pressure to cede control of Saint Martin’s Island, a strategically important location in the Bay of Bengal, to external interests.
The interim government’s relations with India have reportedly been strained since Hasina’s ouster and subsequent exile in India. Pakistan, meanwhile, is seen as seeking to capitalize on the absence of the traditionally pro-India Awami League.
A Referendum on Future Governance
Alongside the general election, Bangladesh will hold a referendum on the July National Charter, a package of constitutional reforms proposed by the interim government. A ‘Yes’ vote would empower the newly elected parliament to implement the reforms outlined in the charter, covering areas such as the structure of the state, executive power, electoral procedures, and the judiciary. A ‘No’ vote would leave the implementation of reforms to the discretion of the winning party.
On , just days before the election, Dhaka secured a trade agreement with the United States, reducing tariffs on Bangladeshi goods to 19% from 20%. The deal includes exemptions for textiles and garments manufactured using US-produced materials. This agreement followed nine months of negotiations and came shortly after the US signed a similar agreement with India, Bangladesh’s competitor in the global garment market.
The outcome of the February 12th elections and the accompanying referendum will have far-reaching consequences for Bangladesh, shaping its future governance, regional relationships, and economic prospects.
