Prem Chand is one of the many rickshaw drivers who spend their days navigating Delhi’s busy roads. And like an increasing number of the city’s thousands of rickshaws, Chand’s vehicle is electric. He used to drive a gas-powered cab but switched eight months ago after calculating that an e-rickshaw was far cheaper to operate and it doesn’t contribute to the city’s famously toxic air pollution.
“This is good for my pocket and for my environment, so why wouldn’t I make the switch?” Chand said.
Electric three-wheeler vehicles are now commonplace in many Indian cities, used for short trips between metro stations, offices, shops, and homes. This trend extends beyond urban areas, with e-rickshaws becoming increasingly popular in rural regions. Across India, nearly 60% of all three-wheeler sales are now electric.
This transport revolution unfolding in the world’s most populous country is not without its challenges – many e-rickshaws operate without authorization and rely on stolen electricity – but its speed and scale reflect a remarkable clean energy boom. While China is often seen as a clean energy superpower, India’s electrification pathway may ultimately be even faster, according to a new report from climate think tank Ember, with significant implications for the rest of the world. As the planet’s third-biggest climate polluter, what happens in India affects everyone.
To compare the energy trajectories of the two countries, Ember examined China’s situation in 2012, when its income levels were comparable to India’s today, around $11,000 per person. At that time, China had virtually no solar capacity, whereas solar currently accounts for 9% of India’s electricity mix, ranging from rooftop installations to large-scale solar farms. India is now the world’s third-largest solar power producer.
The story is similar for electric vehicles. EVs represent around 5% of all car sales in India, and the country sells more electric three-wheelers than any other. In 2012, China had very few EVs on its roads.
However, India remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels. It has plans to expand coal production over the next two decades, and its oil consumption is growing. The country’s increasing energy demand means that, despite the rapid addition of renewable energy, coal is not yet being displaced from the grid, according to Debajit Palit from the Centre for Climate Change & Energy Transition at the Chintan Research Foundation.
Nevertheless, Ember found that India’s coal consumption is roughly 40% of China’s at a similar stage of development. India also has significantly lower oil demand for transport, about half of China’s levels per person in 2012.
While China is on track to become the world’s first “electrostate,” it built its power on fossil fuels, said Kingsmill Bond, energy strategist for Ember and a report author. China initially opted for the cheapest and most accessible energy sources, which, 30 years ago, were fossil technologies, but that has changed; now, it’s electrotech.
In contrast, India could “leapfrog” an era of intensive fossil fuel burning and take a shortcut to a cleaner energy future, Bond said.
The primary driver of India’s clean energy transition is cost. In 2004, when China used a similar amount of energy per person as India does now, coal was about ten times cheaper than solar. Today, solar energy, including the cost of storage, is about half the price of new coal plants, according to Ember. The costs of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries have all plummeted. Battery prices alone dropped 40% in 2024, Bond said. These kinds of reductions are not achievable with fossil fuels.
Clean energy also offers India a key benefit: energy independence. While the Trump administration views energy independence as boosting oil and gas production and hindering wind and solar, for India, clean energy provides an opportunity to reduce its reliance on other countries in an increasingly volatile world. India imports close to 90% of its oil and half of its gas, making it vulnerable to price shocks and geopolitical instability, said Thijs Van de Graaf, an associate professor of international politics at Ghent University. “Renewables help reduce this vulnerability,” he said.
There are challenges. India’s clean energy rollout still depends on China, which dominates supply chains for critical minerals and electrotech. However, India has plans to reduce this dependence. Over the last decade, solar module production has surged twelvefold, Ember’s report noted. The government has also launched a “national critical mineral mission” to increase domestic production, Palit said.
This presents a potential advantage. The US is becoming an increasingly unreliable trade partner, and China’s supply-chain monopolies are causing concern in many countries. There is a growing demand for alternative trading partners, Ember’s report noted. A huge trade deal signed between India and the European Union last month has been interpreted as a sign of this shift.
The exact pace and manner of India’s clean energy revolution remain uncertain. However, the overall conclusion is that India is charting a faster path to clean energy than China, generating more solar power, burning less fossil fuel, and electrifying transportation at a quicker rate. This approach could be replicated in other emerging economies, which may be able to harness increasingly affordable wind and solar power to fuel their economic development.
Interestingly, President Donald Trump – who openly opposes clean energy and promotes fossil fuels – may be inadvertently driving this revolution. His transactional, “go-it-alone” approach is pushing energy import-dependent countries toward clean energy, Van de Graaf said. “The result is a growing divergence: a US prioritizing fossil fuel dominance, and emerging economies positioning themselves for an electrified energy future.”
