The prospect of a renewed nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran is gaining traction, spurred by diplomatic initiatives from regional powers seeking to avert a wider conflict. While significant hurdles remain, a shift in tone from Washington and a willingness to re-engage in talks suggest a potential de-escalation after months of heightened tension.
US President Donald Trump, who had previously adopted a hardline stance towards Tehran, now appears to prioritize diplomacy. This shift is evidenced by his willingness to engage in negotiations, despite continued insistence that any agreement must address Iran’s ballistic missile program. According to sources, Trump has also moved away from actively pursuing regime change in Iran, a policy that had been a point of contention in previous discussions. “If the Iranian people want to overthrow the regime, that’s up to them,” Vice-President J.D. Vance stated on Wednesday, signaling a change in focus to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
The current negotiations are taking place against a backdrop of regional instability. Iran and Israel engaged in a in June, underscoring the fragility of the security situation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been a vocal opponent of any agreement that does not adequately address Iran’s military capabilities and its potential to threaten Israel. He reportedly attempted to persuade Trump to adopt a more stringent negotiating position, but the US President appears to have rebuffed these efforts, focusing instead on the core issue of nuclear proliferation.
The talks, initially slated for Istanbul, have been moved to Muscat, Oman, reflecting the delicate nature of the discussions and the need for a neutral venue. The agenda remains a key point of contention. Iran insists that negotiations should be limited to its nuclear program, while the US is demanding a broader scope that includes Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal, its support for regional proxy groups, and its domestic human rights record. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized this point on Wednesday, stating that talks must encompass “the range of Iran’s ballistic missiles, its support for armed proxy groups around the Middle East and its treatment of its own people, besides nuclear issues.”
The urgency to reach a resolution is amplified by the escalating tensions in the region and the US military buildup in the Middle East. The potential for miscalculation and unintended escalation is high, making diplomatic engagement all the more critical. Gulf monarchies and Turkey have played a crucial role in facilitating these talks, recognizing the devastating consequences of a full-scale conflict.
The recent unrest within Iran, and the government’s crackdown on protestors, adds another layer of complexity to the negotiations. President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged the “great sorrow” caused by the authorities’ actions, stating, “We feel ashamed before the people.” The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency reported a death toll of nearly 7,000 people as of Tuesday, a figure the group verifies through a network of activists on the ground. While the US has seemingly stepped back from actively pursuing regime change, the internal situation in Iran remains a significant factor influencing the dynamics of the talks.
The second round of talks, mediated by Oman, commenced on , following an initial round of discussions in April 2025. Those earlier talks, led by U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, were described as “constructive” by both sides. However, the path forward remains uncertain. The success of these negotiations will hinge on the willingness of both sides to compromise and address each other’s core concerns.
Iran has repeatedly stated that it is not seeking nuclear weapons and is open to verification measures. President Pezeshkian reiterated this position on Wednesday, emphasizing Iran’s commitment to transparency. However, the US remains skeptical, demanding robust safeguards to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program remains solely for peaceful purposes.
The negotiations are occurring within the broader context of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), from which the US withdrew in 2018. The current efforts represent an attempt to revive the agreement, albeit with potential modifications to address concerns that have emerged since its initial implementation. The ongoing Iranian financial crisis and the Red Sea crisis further complicate the geopolitical landscape, adding to the pressure to find a diplomatic solution.
The outcome of these talks will have significant implications for regional stability, global energy markets, and the future of nuclear non-proliferation. A successful agreement could de-escalate tensions, reduce the risk of conflict, and pave the way for increased economic cooperation. However, failure to reach a resolution could lead to further escalation, potentially triggering a wider and more destructive conflict in the Middle East.
