Washington and Brussels are bracing for a period of heightened transatlantic tension as the newly re-elected Trump administration signals a fundamental shift in its approach to Europe. A recently released national security strategy document, details of which emerged on , outlines a vision that prioritizes transactional relationships and a re-evaluation of long-held security commitments, raising concerns among European leaders about the future of the alliance.
The document, according to analysis by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, suggests a willingness to resist Europe’s current trajectory
, a phrase that has sparked considerable debate within diplomatic circles. Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, president of the Fund, noted that the strategy reflects an increasing gap when it comes to values, when it comes to norms
between the United States and key European partners. This divergence, she argues, necessitates a redefinition
of the transatlantic relationship, focusing more on shared interests
than shared value
.
The shift in tone is particularly evident in the administration’s stance on NATO expansion. The national security memo reportedly calls for halting the alliance’s continued growth, a departure from decades of US policy that has supported the inclusion of new members from Central and Eastern Europe. This move is likely to be viewed with apprehension by countries bordering Russia, who see NATO membership as a crucial deterrent against potential aggression. The implications for Ukraine, currently engaged in a conflict with Russia, are particularly acute.
Beyond security concerns, the Trump administration appears intent on reshaping economic ties with Europe. The strategy emphasizes a desire for financially lucrative relationships
and a reduction in migration to the West, suggesting that trade and cooperation will be increasingly linked to these priorities. This transactional approach contrasts sharply with the post-World War II era, when the United States played a leading role in fostering European integration and economic recovery.
The change in US policy comes at a time when Europe is already facing a complex array of challenges. Russia’s actions in Ukraine have destabilized the continent, while China’s growing economic and military influence is raising concerns about strategic competition. Iran’s support for proxy groups in the Middle East continues to fuel regional instability, and the potential for further terrorist attacks remains a persistent threat. These challenges, coupled with internal divisions within the European Union, make it more difficult for Europe to present a united front in dealing with the United States.
The Atlantic Council, in a report published in , warned of the need for a new agenda
for US-EU relations, recognizing that the traditional framework for cooperation may no longer be sufficient. The report, Transatlantic horizons: A collaborative US-EU policy agenda for 2025 and beyond
, called for a renewed commitment to common action, echoing the spirit of the post-war era when American support was instrumental in rebuilding Europe. The authors, Daniel Fried and Jörn Fleck, drew a parallel to the words of German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer in , who observed that Americans were the best Europeans
, highlighting the historical importance of US leadership in promoting a strong and united Europe.
However, the current administration’s approach appears to diverge significantly from this historical model. Chatham House analysts report that close Trump confidantes have infused a disdain for Europe into the text
of the new national security strategy, suggesting that a strong transatlantic relationship is no longer considered critical to US interests
. This sentiment is likely to fuel anxieties in European capitals, where leaders are already grappling with the implications of a more assertive and unpredictable US foreign policy.
The European Union Institute for Security Studies has also weighed in, noting the need for Europe to adopt a new approach
in , acknowledging the difficulty of turning Trump into Biden
. This suggests a growing recognition within Europe that a fundamental shift in US policy is underway and that a more independent and self-reliant approach may be necessary.
The coming months will be crucial in determining the future of transatlantic relations. European leaders will need to navigate a delicate balance between maintaining a strong alliance with the United States and asserting their own strategic interests. The ability to forge a common understanding on issues such as trade, security, and climate change will be essential for preserving the long-term stability of the transatlantic partnership. The stakes are high, not only for Europe and the United States, but for the broader international order.
The National Security Strategy also emphasizes the importance of fairness in all aspects of US foreign policy, from military alliances to trade relations. This suggests a willingness to challenge existing arrangements and demand greater reciprocity from allies. While the administration maintains that a strong Europe is needed to successfully compete
and work in concert
with the United States, the overall tone of the strategy indicates a more transactional and less idealistic approach to transatlantic relations.
