The global soybean market is watching closely to see if China will increase its purchases of U.S. Soybeans this year, and by how much. The question is critical for the market, impacting prices and trade flows. Pressure from the United States for China to bolster its purchases of U.S. Grains remains significant.
Under an agreement reached in November between the United States and China, Beijing committed to purchasing 12 million metric tons of U.S. Soybeans. However, Donald Trump has expressed confidence that the actual volume will be higher, claiming after a February 4th conversation with the Chinese president that China is considering purchases of up to 20 million metric tons. This intention has not been confirmed by Beijing.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its latest monthly report alluded to these potential additional Chinese purchases, but cautiously. According to Gautier Le Molgat, Director General of Argus Media France, the USDA refrained from incorporating any changes into its export projections for U.S. Soybeans compared to January figures.
Direct Impact for Brazil
If China were to purchase an additional 8 million metric tons from the United States, Brazil would be the first to feel the impact. What we have is a domino effect, explained by experts; any additional volumes sold by U.S. Exporters would likely come at the expense of Brazilian sales, forcing Brazil to seek alternative destinations. Brazil, currently the world’s leading soybean exporter, is anticipating a record harvest of 177.9 million metric tons, according to the Brazilian agricultural agency, Conab, and may be tempted to lower prices to offload the surplus volume not destined for China.
Since being mentioned by Donald Trump, the scenario has gained traction and generated considerable discussion. However, the coming months will be crucial to determine whether China will prioritize satisfying Donald Trump ahead of his planned visit to Beijing in April.
The market has reacted optimistically to the prospect of increased Chinese purchases, driving up prices. U.S. Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade reached a two-month high, anticipating increased activity towards China.
U.S. Soybeans are currently approximately $40 per tonne more expensive than Brazilian soybeans. Given the competitive pricing of South American soybeans, any increase in Chinese purchases would likely be driven by political considerations rather than financial benefits.
The recent suspension of U.S. Soybean imports by China earlier in 2025, lasting six months, led Brazil to increase its exports to China to levels not seen since 2018, according to a report from farmdoc daily published on . This highlights Brazil’s ability to quickly fill the void left by reduced U.S. Exports.
The U.S. Soybean industry is also focusing on increasing domestic processing capacity. According to reporting from AgWeb, the U.S. Is eyeing a 30% surge in domestic processing to enhance resilience and capture more value within the country. This move aims to reduce reliance on exports and strengthen the U.S. Soybean supply chain.
The dynamic between the U.S., China, and Brazil in the soybean market is complex and influenced by trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and evolving consumer preferences. The imposition of tariffs and trade disputes has placed U.S. Farmers at a competitive disadvantage, prompting China to diversify its sourcing portfolio and increase purchases from Brazil. This realignment reflects a deliberate effort to reduce dependence on any single supplier amid escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing.
The trade deal announced in November, committing China to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. Soybeans in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028, offers some relief to U.S. Producers. However, the agreement only partially recovers lost export volumes. U.S. Soybean exports to China in 2025 are projected to total around 18 million metric tons, 33% lower than the 26.8 million metric tons exported in 2024.
The situation underscores the importance of profit margins for U.S. Farmers, as they navigate a volatile global market and increased competition from Brazil. The future of the U.S. Soybean industry will depend on its ability to adapt to changing trade dynamics and capitalize on opportunities in both domestic and international markets.
