Outback Australia Braces for Historic Rainfall, Flash Flood Risk High
Parts of inland South Australia, Queensland, and New South Wales are bracing for an extraordinary deluge, with forecasts predicting rainfall totals that could equal a year’s worth in just one week. The impending downpour comes after a period of record-breaking heat, raising concerns about flash flooding and widespread disruption.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has issued severe weather warnings for several regions, including north-western New South Wales, central and northern Victoria, north-east South Australia, and south-western Queensland. Heavy, locally intense rainfall is predicted across these areas, with north-eastern South Australia and north-western New South Wales expected to receive between 200-300mm of rain in the coming days. Widespread falls of 100-200mm are also anticipated across inland areas.
“Those were some big numbers in a very dry part of the country,” said Dean Narramore, a senior meteorologist with the BoM. The forecast is particularly significant given the prolonged drought conditions in many of these regions.
The outback town of Marree, located approximately 600km north of Adelaide, is facing the prospect of exceeding its average annual rainfall of 142mm. This comes after a particularly dry year, with only 37mm recorded throughout 2025, and following a recent heatwave where residents endured five consecutive days of temperatures exceeding 48°C.
Other communities potentially facing significant rainfall include Tibooburra and areas north of Broken Hill in New South Wales, and Birdsville in Queensland. The BoM warns that the heavy rainfall could lead to the isolation of some communities, although it will also replenish vital water resources, filling aquifers, rainwater tanks, and dams.
Remarkably, heavy rain is also falling directly over Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre, which is expected to benefit significantly from both the direct rainfall and the inflow of water from surrounding areas. Meteorologists predict the lake could be “pretty full” by next week.
Further south, Scone in the NSW Hunter region recorded 102.6mm at the airport on Sunday, establishing a new record for the highest daily rainfall in February.
The extreme weather is also impacting transportation infrastructure. The Indian Pacific, a tourist train operating between Perth and Sydney, has been turned around and sent back to Perth after heavy rain and flooding washed away sections of track, in some places up to 100 meters long. An alert on the train’s website warned of potential impacts to services from Sydney in the coming week, with alternative travel arrangements being made for affected passengers.
The Australian Rail Track Corporation is currently inspecting the East West rail line near Broken Hill and Port Augusta to assess the extent of the damage. Repairs are expected to take more than a week, and further weather systems forecast to move across the region later this week could exacerbate the situation.
Several outback roads, including the Birdsville Track, are already closed as of Monday, and further disruptions are expected in the coming days.
The unusual weather patterns are linked to a lingering monsoon low and a vast humid airmass. Experts note that global heating, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events worldwide.
While Sydney is not directly in the path of the most intense rainfall, several days of showers are forecast from late Wednesday to Sunday, as February is typically one of the city’s wettest months.
